Trader consensus prices a 76.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by Eurozone inflation surging to 2.6% in March—up from 1.9% in February—amid energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, even after a recent ceasefire. ECB staff projections now forecast 2.6% headline inflation for the year, exceeding the 2% target, prompting Governing Council members like Christine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy to signal the next policy move is likely upward if pressures persist, though timing remains unclear. The March 19 decision held key rates steady but adopted a hawkish tone, with markets pricing 50-70 basis points of tightening despite dialed-back April odds ahead of the April 30 meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAumento dei tassi della BCE nel 2026?
Aumento dei tassi della BCE nel 2026?
Sì
$94,108 Vol.
$94,108 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$94,108 Vol.
$94,108 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 76.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by Eurozone inflation surging to 2.6% in March—up from 1.9% in February—amid energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, even after a recent ceasefire. ECB staff projections now forecast 2.6% headline inflation for the year, exceeding the 2% target, prompting Governing Council members like Christine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy to signal the next policy move is likely upward if pressures persist, though timing remains unclear. The March 19 decision held key rates steady but adopted a hawkish tone, with markets pricing 50-70 basis points of tightening despite dialed-back April odds ahead of the April 30 meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$94,108Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 76.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by Eurozone inflation surging to 2.6% in March—up from 1.9% in February—amid energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, even after a recent ceasefire. ECB staff projections now forecast 2.6% headline inflation for the year, exceeding the 2% target, prompting Governing Council members like Christine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy to signal the next policy move is likely upward if pressures persist, though timing remains unclear. The March 19 decision held key rates steady but adopted a hawkish tone, with markets pricing 50-70 basis points of tightening despite dialed-back April odds ahead of the April 30 meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$94,127Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 76.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by Eurozone inflation surging to 2.6% in March—up from 1.9% in February—amid energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, even after a recent ceasefire. ECB staff projections now forecast 2.6% headline inflation for the year, exceeding the 2% target, prompting Governing Council members like Christine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy to signal the next policy move is likely upward if pressures persist, though timing remains unclear. The March 19 decision held key rates steady but adopted a hawkish tone, with markets pricing 50-70 basis points of tightening despite dialed-back April odds ahead of the April 30 meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti