Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 90.5% implied probability for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil shocks, alongside stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent FOMC minutes highlight officials elevating 2026 inflation outlooks and signaling patience or potential hikes amid sticky prices above the 2% target and resilient labor conditions, with the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning could face challenges from softer April CPI (due May 15) or easing geopolitical tensions prompting cut expectations, though current data supports the hold-steady bias.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed a giugno?
Decisione della Fed a giugno?
Nessuna variazione 91%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 6%
Aumento di 25 punti base 2.6%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.4%
$7,948,576 Vol.
$7,948,576 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
6%
Nessuna variazione
91%
Aumento di 25 punti base
3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessuna variazione 91%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 6%
Aumento di 25 punti base 2.6%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.4%
$7,948,576 Vol.
$7,948,576 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$2,321,566 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$1,204,248 Vol.
6%
Nessuna variazione
$1,486,547 Vol.
91%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$1,622,138 Vol.
3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$1,314,156 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 90.5% implied probability for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil shocks, alongside stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent FOMC minutes highlight officials elevating 2026 inflation outlooks and signaling patience or potential hikes amid sticky prices above the 2% target and resilient labor conditions, with the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning could face challenges from softer April CPI (due May 15) or easing geopolitical tensions prompting cut expectations, though current data supports the hold-steady bias.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$7,948,576Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 90.5% implied probability for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil shocks, alongside stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent FOMC minutes highlight officials elevating 2026 inflation outlooks and signaling patience or potential hikes amid sticky prices above the 2% target and resilient labor conditions, with the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning could face challenges from softer April CPI (due May 15) or easing geopolitical tensions prompting cut expectations, though current data supports the hold-steady bias.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$7,948,576Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 90.5% implied probability for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil shocks, alongside stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent FOMC minutes highlight officials elevating 2026 inflation outlooks and signaling patience or potential hikes amid sticky prices above the 2% target and resilient labor conditions, with the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning could face challenges from softer April CPI (due May 15) or easing geopolitical tensions prompting cut expectations, though current data supports the hold-steady bias.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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