Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by broad-based price pressures and supply shocks including energy disruptions, underpins the 55.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed several officials favoring a 25-basis-point increase at that meeting, with three dissents, while the median dot plot and trader positioning reflect a hawkish tilt amid resilient growth and limited labor-market slack. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following repeated holds, yet futures markets continue to embed a modest chance of tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the August 26 PCE release and the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data on core inflation and employment will determine whether policy stays on hold or shifts restrictive.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
56% probabilità
$7,877,081 Vol.
$7,877,081 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
56% probabilità
$7,877,081 Vol.
$7,877,081 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by broad-based price pressures and supply shocks including energy disruptions, underpins the 55.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed several officials favoring a 25-basis-point increase at that meeting, with three dissents, while the median dot plot and trader positioning reflect a hawkish tilt amid resilient growth and limited labor-market slack. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following repeated holds, yet futures markets continue to embed a modest chance of tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the August 26 PCE release and the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data on core inflation and employment will determine whether policy stays on hold or shifts restrictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,877,081Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by broad-based price pressures and supply shocks including energy disruptions, underpins the 55.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed several officials favoring a 25-basis-point increase at that meeting, with three dissents, while the median dot plot and trader positioning reflect a hawkish tilt amid resilient growth and limited labor-market slack. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following repeated holds, yet futures markets continue to embed a modest chance of tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the August 26 PCE release and the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data on core inflation and employment will determine whether policy stays on hold or shifts restrictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,877,081Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by broad-based price pressures and supply shocks including energy disruptions, underpins the 55.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed several officials favoring a 25-basis-point increase at that meeting, with three dissents, while the median dot plot and trader positioning reflect a hawkish tilt amid resilient growth and limited labor-market slack. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following repeated holds, yet futures markets continue to embed a modest chance of tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the August 26 PCE release and the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data on core inflation and employment will determine whether policy stays on hold or shifts restrictive.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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