Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the narrow 54.5% market-implied odds of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in its July meeting on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures remaining above the 2% goal, partly due to energy shocks. Solid GDP expansion, stable unemployment near 4.2%, and robust job gains have limited downside risks to policy, while futures markets price modest tightening later this year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, fresh CPI and employment data, and any shifts in Middle East-related supply factors that could either reinforce hawkish consensus or support a pause.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
55% probabilità
$6,988,282 Vol.
$6,988,282 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
55% probabilità
$6,988,282 Vol.
$6,988,282 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the narrow 54.5% market-implied odds of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in its July meeting on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures remaining above the 2% goal, partly due to energy shocks. Solid GDP expansion, stable unemployment near 4.2%, and robust job gains have limited downside risks to policy, while futures markets price modest tightening later this year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, fresh CPI and employment data, and any shifts in Middle East-related supply factors that could either reinforce hawkish consensus or support a pause.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,988,282Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the narrow 54.5% market-implied odds of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in its July meeting on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures remaining above the 2% goal, partly due to energy shocks. Solid GDP expansion, stable unemployment near 4.2%, and robust job gains have limited downside risks to policy, while futures markets price modest tightening later this year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, fresh CPI and employment data, and any shifts in Middle East-related supply factors that could either reinforce hawkish consensus or support a pause.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,988,282Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the narrow 54.5% market-implied odds of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in its July meeting on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures remaining above the 2% goal, partly due to energy shocks. Solid GDP expansion, stable unemployment near 4.2%, and robust job gains have limited downside risks to policy, while futures markets price modest tightening later this year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, fresh CPI and employment data, and any shifts in Middle East-related supply factors that could either reinforce hawkish consensus or support a pause.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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