Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate Dallas highs near 100–101°F on August 6, aligning with trader emphasis on that bin amid broader warmer-than-normal August conditions across Texas. Persistent high pressure and drier air masses have supported elevated temperatures through early August, with climatological August averages around 96°F but recent outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center tilting toward above-normal heat. Short-range ensemble runs show limited day-to-day variability, though afternoon mixing, cloud cover, or minor frontal influences could trim peaks by a degree or two. Historical 100°F+ frequency in Dallas during peak summer provides context for the market-implied distribution centered in the low 100s.