Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over London for July 24, with clear-sky potential allowing lows to dip toward or below 13°C while cloud cover or residual warmth from recent heatwave dissipation could hold them near 16–17°C. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 13°C or below (46.5%) and the 15–17°C range (35–37%), reflecting genuine variability in boundary-layer conditions and wind patterns rather than strong consensus. Historical July climatology places average London lows near 14–15°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability (under 2%) to outcomes above 20°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could shift resolution thresholds tied to official minimum temperature readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Londra il 24 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa di Londra il 24 luglio?
18°C 100.0%
13°C o inferiore <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,606 Vol.
$31,606 Vol.
24 lug 2026
13°C o inferiore
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Sì
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C o superiore
No
18°C 100.0%
13°C o inferiore <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,606 Vol.
$31,606 Vol.
24 lug 2026
13°C o inferiore
$502 Vol.
No
14°C
$596 Vol.
No
15°C
$770 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,569 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,270 Vol.
No
18°C
$6,721 Vol.
Sì
19°C
$5,799 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,364 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,045 Vol.
No
22°C
$565 Vol.
No
23°C o superiore
$407 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over London for July 24, with clear-sky potential allowing lows to dip toward or below 13°C while cloud cover or residual warmth from recent heatwave dissipation could hold them near 16–17°C. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 13°C or below (46.5%) and the 15–17°C range (35–37%), reflecting genuine variability in boundary-layer conditions and wind patterns rather than strong consensus. Historical July climatology places average London lows near 14–15°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability (under 2%) to outcomes above 20°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could shift resolution thresholds tied to official minimum temperature readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$31,606Data di fine
24 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over London for July 24, with clear-sky potential allowing lows to dip toward or below 13°C while cloud cover or residual warmth from recent heatwave dissipation could hold them near 16–17°C. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 13°C or below (46.5%) and the 15–17°C range (35–37%), reflecting genuine variability in boundary-layer conditions and wind patterns rather than strong consensus. Historical July climatology places average London lows near 14–15°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability (under 2%) to outcomes above 20°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could shift resolution thresholds tied to official minimum temperature readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,606Data di fine
24 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over London for July 24, with clear-sky potential allowing lows to dip toward or below 13°C while cloud cover or residual warmth from recent heatwave dissipation could hold them near 16–17°C. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 13°C or below (46.5%) and the 15–17°C range (35–37%), reflecting genuine variability in boundary-layer conditions and wind patterns rather than strong consensus. Historical July climatology places average London lows near 14–15°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability (under 2%) to outcomes above 20°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could shift resolution thresholds tied to official minimum temperature readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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