Current Met Office and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C in London on September 14, reflecting a warm, stable air mass under high pressure that has limited overnight radiative cooling. This setup has kept ensemble guidance tightly clustered around 17–19°C, explaining the combined 74% market-implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-September climatology typically features lows of 12–15°C, so the elevated forecast represents a notable positive anomaly driven by southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Traders are watching the next model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C and quickly reprice the 17°C and 19°C contracts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Londra il 14 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di Londra il 14 settembre?
18°C 52%
19°C 23%
16°C 14%
17°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 set 2026
12°C o inferiore
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
10%
17°C
13%
18°C
52%
19°C
23%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C o superiore
1%
18°C 52%
19°C 23%
16°C 14%
17°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 set 2026
12°C o inferiore
$43 Vol.
1%
13°C
$21 Vol.
1%
14°C
$20 Vol.
1%
15°C
$99 Vol.
2%
16°C
$129 Vol.
10%
17°C
$2,943 Vol.
13%
18°C
$777 Vol.
52%
19°C
$649 Vol.
23%
20°C
$20 Vol.
4%
21°C
$43 Vol.
1%
22°C o superiore
$43 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Met Office and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C in London on September 14, reflecting a warm, stable air mass under high pressure that has limited overnight radiative cooling. This setup has kept ensemble guidance tightly clustered around 17–19°C, explaining the combined 74% market-implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-September climatology typically features lows of 12–15°C, so the elevated forecast represents a notable positive anomaly driven by southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Traders are watching the next model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C and quickly reprice the 17°C and 19°C contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,785Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Met Office and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C in London on September 14, reflecting a warm, stable air mass under high pressure that has limited overnight radiative cooling. This setup has kept ensemble guidance tightly clustered around 17–19°C, explaining the combined 74% market-implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-September climatology typically features lows of 12–15°C, so the elevated forecast represents a notable positive anomaly driven by southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Traders are watching the next model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C and quickly reprice the 17°C and 19°C contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,785Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Current Met Office and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C in London on September 14, reflecting a warm, stable air mass under high pressure that has limited overnight radiative cooling. This setup has kept ensemble guidance tightly clustered around 17–19°C, explaining the combined 74% market-implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-September climatology typically features lows of 12–15°C, so the elevated forecast represents a notable positive anomaly driven by southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Traders are watching the next model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C and quickly reprice the 17°C and 19°C contracts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti