Recent forecast guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international models points to a minimum temperature near 24–26°C in Shenzhen on September 13, driven by persistent easterly flow, high humidity above 80%, and widespread cloud cover with periods of rain that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This subtropical late-summer pattern, typical for the region where September climatological lows average 24°C, creates tight clustering around 25–27°C outcomes in the market. Trader sentiment remains balanced across these bins because small shifts in overnight cloud timing or rainfall intensity—common sources of model spread—can easily move the recorded low by 1–2°C, while the low probability for 21°C or below reflects the absence of strong cold-air advection.