Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to a minimum of 7–9°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a shift from southerly flow to lighter northerlies under partly cloudy skies that permit nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 14–16°C. This setup, following several days of cooler southerlies, supports the market’s elevated 50% implied probability on 4°C or below as traders price in downside uncertainty from variable wind speeds and localized cold-air pooling in the region’s topography. Historical September lows average near 8–9°C, with recent observations showing similar overnight dips when winds remain light; updated model runs tonight will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 14 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 14 settembre?
4°C o inferiore 85%
11°C 40%
8°C 32%
7°C 24%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 set 2026
4°C o inferiore
85%
5°C
18%
6°C
21%
7°C
24%
8°C
32%
9°C
22%
10°C
7%
11°C
40%
12°C
18%
13°C
17%
14°C o superiore
<1%
4°C o inferiore 85%
11°C 40%
8°C 32%
7°C 24%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 set 2026
4°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
85%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$24 Vol.
21%
7°C
$0 Vol.
24%
8°C
$0 Vol.
32%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$328 Vol.
7%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to a minimum of 7–9°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a shift from southerly flow to lighter northerlies under partly cloudy skies that permit nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 14–16°C. This setup, following several days of cooler southerlies, supports the market’s elevated 50% implied probability on 4°C or below as traders price in downside uncertainty from variable wind speeds and localized cold-air pooling in the region’s topography. Historical September lows average near 8–9°C, with recent observations showing similar overnight dips when winds remain light; updated model runs tonight will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$352Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to a minimum of 7–9°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a shift from southerly flow to lighter northerlies under partly cloudy skies that permit nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 14–16°C. This setup, following several days of cooler southerlies, supports the market’s elevated 50% implied probability on 4°C or below as traders price in downside uncertainty from variable wind speeds and localized cold-air pooling in the region’s topography. Historical September lows average near 8–9°C, with recent observations showing similar overnight dips when winds remain light; updated model runs tonight will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$352Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to a minimum of 7–9°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a shift from southerly flow to lighter northerlies under partly cloudy skies that permit nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 14–16°C. This setup, following several days of cooler southerlies, supports the market’s elevated 50% implied probability on 4°C or below as traders price in downside uncertainty from variable wind speeds and localized cold-air pooling in the region’s topography. Historical September lows average near 8–9°C, with recent observations showing similar overnight dips when winds remain light; updated model runs tonight will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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