The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, primary and November general election, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican primary candidate Thomas Stalcup and general election entrants face structural barriers in a state where Democrats have held every House seat since 1994. Trader consensus incorporates this historical baseline and the absence of recent developments—such as candidate withdrawals or polling shifts—that would narrow the margin. A late scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
MA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$40,147 Vol.
$40,147 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
94%
Partito Repubblicano
3%
$40,147 Vol.
$40,147 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$20,192 Vol.
94%
Partito Repubblicano
$19,956 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, primary and November general election, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican primary candidate Thomas Stalcup and general election entrants face structural barriers in a state where Democrats have held every House seat since 1994. Trader consensus incorporates this historical baseline and the absence of recent developments—such as candidate withdrawals or polling shifts—that would narrow the margin. A late scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$40,147Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, primary and November general election, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican primary candidate Thomas Stalcup and general election entrants face structural barriers in a state where Democrats have held every House seat since 1994. Trader consensus incorporates this historical baseline and the absence of recent developments—such as candidate withdrawals or polling shifts—that would narrow the margin. A late scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,147Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, primary and November general election, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican primary candidate Thomas Stalcup and general election entrants face structural barriers in a state where Democrats have held every House seat since 1994. Trader consensus incorporates this historical baseline and the absence of recent developments—such as candidate withdrawals or polling shifts—that would narrow the margin. A late scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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