Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong performance by Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles. Auchincloss secured renomination on September 1, 2026, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by a roughly 72-28 percent margin in the primary, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting Auchincloss to win by margins exceeding 40 points. The district’s southeastern Massachusetts electorate, including areas like Newton and Fall River, has favored Democratic House candidates by wide margins in prior cycles. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift would be required to alter the current trader consensus on the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
MA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,504 Vol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,745 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong performance by Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles. Auchincloss secured renomination on September 1, 2026, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by a roughly 72-28 percent margin in the primary, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting Auchincloss to win by margins exceeding 40 points. The district’s southeastern Massachusetts electorate, including areas like Newton and Fall River, has favored Democratic House candidates by wide margins in prior cycles. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift would be required to alter the current trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,249Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong performance by Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles. Auchincloss secured renomination on September 1, 2026, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by a roughly 72-28 percent margin in the primary, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting Auchincloss to win by margins exceeding 40 points. The district’s southeastern Massachusetts electorate, including areas like Newton and Fall River, has favored Democratic House candidates by wide margins in prior cycles. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift would be required to alter the current trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,249Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong performance by Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles. Auchincloss secured renomination on September 1, 2026, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by a roughly 72-28 percent margin in the primary, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting Auchincloss to win by margins exceeding 40 points. The district’s southeastern Massachusetts electorate, including areas like Newton and Fall River, has favored Democratic House candidates by wide margins in prior cycles. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift would be required to alter the current trader consensus on the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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