Robust business investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending have sustained positive U.S. real GDP growth through the first half of 2026, with Q1 advancing 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts center on 2.0–2.3% full-year expansion, reflecting stable labor markets near 4.3% unemployment and supportive monetary policy. These fundamentals underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Tail risks remain low but include a sharp escalation in energy prices from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings enough to produce a full-year contraction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
28 gen 2027
Sì
2% probabilità
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
28 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust business investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending have sustained positive U.S. real GDP growth through the first half of 2026, with Q1 advancing 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts center on 2.0–2.3% full-year expansion, reflecting stable labor markets near 4.3% unemployment and supportive monetary policy. These fundamentals underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Tail risks remain low but include a sharp escalation in energy prices from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings enough to produce a full-year contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,419Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust business investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending have sustained positive U.S. real GDP growth through the first half of 2026, with Q1 advancing 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts center on 2.0–2.3% full-year expansion, reflecting stable labor markets near 4.3% unemployment and supportive monetary policy. These fundamentals underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Tail risks remain low but include a sharp escalation in energy prices from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings enough to produce a full-year contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,419Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Robust business investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending have sustained positive U.S. real GDP growth through the first half of 2026, with Q1 advancing 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts center on 2.0–2.3% full-year expansion, reflecting stable labor markets near 4.3% unemployment and supportive monetary policy. These fundamentals underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Tail risks remain low but include a sharp escalation in energy prices from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could compress quarterly readings enough to produce a full-year contraction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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