Polymarket traders reflect strong conviction with a 91% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, anchored by consensus forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, S&P Global, and others projecting 2.1-2.3% annual expansion amid a resilient labor market and consumer spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 0.5% annualized growth for Q4 2025 on April 9—down from Q3's 4.4% but positive—while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.3% as of early April. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, holding unemployment at 4.3%, despite CPI inflation spiking to 3.3% year-over-year on energy costs, with Fed funds steady at 3.50-3.75%. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, tariff escalations curbing trade, or Q1 data revisions turning negative ahead of the late-April advance GDP release and FOMC meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$19,657 Vol.
$19,657 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$19,657 Vol.
$19,657 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders reflect strong conviction with a 91% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, anchored by consensus forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, S&P Global, and others projecting 2.1-2.3% annual expansion amid a resilient labor market and consumer spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 0.5% annualized growth for Q4 2025 on April 9—down from Q3's 4.4% but positive—while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.3% as of early April. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, holding unemployment at 4.3%, despite CPI inflation spiking to 3.3% year-over-year on energy costs, with Fed funds steady at 3.50-3.75%. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, tariff escalations curbing trade, or Q1 data revisions turning negative ahead of the late-April advance GDP release and FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$19,657Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders reflect strong conviction with a 91% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, anchored by consensus forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, S&P Global, and others projecting 2.1-2.3% annual expansion amid a resilient labor market and consumer spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 0.5% annualized growth for Q4 2025 on April 9—down from Q3's 4.4% but positive—while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.3% as of early April. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, holding unemployment at 4.3%, despite CPI inflation spiking to 3.3% year-over-year on energy costs, with Fed funds steady at 3.50-3.75%. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, tariff escalations curbing trade, or Q1 data revisions turning negative ahead of the late-April advance GDP release and FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$19,657Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders reflect strong conviction with a 91% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, anchored by consensus forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, S&P Global, and others projecting 2.1-2.3% annual expansion amid a resilient labor market and consumer spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 0.5% annualized growth for Q4 2025 on April 9—down from Q3's 4.4% but positive—while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.3% as of early April. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, holding unemployment at 4.3%, despite CPI inflation spiking to 3.3% year-over-year on energy costs, with Fed funds steady at 3.50-3.75%. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, tariff escalations curbing trade, or Q1 data revisions turning negative ahead of the late-April advance GDP release and FOMC meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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