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Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?

Market icon

Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Orbán - Primo Ministro dell'Ungheria 93%

Takaichi - Primo Ministro del Giappone 1.6%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente di Cuba 1.6%

Zelenskyy - Presidente dell'Ucraina <1%

Polymarket

$4,484,364 Vol.

Orbán - Primo Ministro dell'Ungheria 93%

Takaichi - Primo Ministro del Giappone 1.6%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente di Cuba 1.6%

Zelenskyy - Presidente dell'Ucraina <1%

Polymarket

$4,484,364 Vol.

Orbán - Primo Ministro dell'Ungheria

$73,993 Vol.

93%

Takaichi - Primo Ministro del Giappone

$385,823 Vol.

2%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente di Cuba

$58,810 Vol.

2%

Zelenskyy - Presidente dell'Ucraina

$65,075 Vol.

1%

Putin - Presidente della Russia

$398,980 Vol.

1%

Petro - Presidente della Colombia

$82,476 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente degli Stati Uniti

$259,797 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Primo Ministro d'Israele

$1,058,934 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Primo Ministro spagnolo

$50,289 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Presidente ad interim del Venezuela

$67,841 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente del Brasile

$113,436 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - Presidente della Palestina

$153,283 Vol.

<1%

Nessuno prima del 2027

$66,652 Vol.

<1%

Macron - Presidente della Francia

$116,134 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Presidente della Turchia

$111,552 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Leader Supremo della Corea del Nord

$65,791 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Governatore della California

$135,985 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente dell'Argentina

$69,376 Vol.

<1%

Starmer - Primo Ministro del Regno Unito

$615,049 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - Primo ministro francese

$127,824 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidente del Messico

$89,616 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente della Siria

$89,392 Vol.

<1%

Xi - Segretario Generale del PCC

$71,458 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primo Ministro australiano

$86,447 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Cancelliere tedesco

$70,351 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's commanding 93% implied probability stems from his Fidesz party's landslide defeat in the April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a supermajority amid record 79% turnout driven by voter frustration over corruption scandals, economic stagnation, and EU tensions. Orbán promptly conceded, ending his 16-year rule, with Magyar urging a swift transition to a caretaker government ahead of a May handover. This dominant trader consensus reflects the near-certainty of Orbán's pre-2027 exit, dwarfing low odds on stable incumbents like Putin or Xi. Realistic challenges include procedural delays in National Assembly convening or coalition snags, though Tisza's mandate minimizes such risks.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,484,364
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's commanding 93% implied probability stems from his Fidesz party's landslide defeat in the April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a supermajority amid record 79% turnout driven by voter frustration over corruption scandals, economic stagnation, and EU tensions. Orbán promptly conceded, ending his 16-year rule, with Magyar urging a swift transition to a caretaker government ahead of a May handover. This dominant trader consensus reflects the near-certainty of Orbán's pre-2027 exit, dwarfing low odds on stable incumbents like Putin or Xi. Realistic challenges include procedural delays in National Assembly convening or coalition snags, though Tisza's mandate minimizes such risks.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,484,364
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 25 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Orbán - Primo Ministro dell'Ungheria" a 93%, seguito da "Takaichi - Primo Ministro del Giappone" a 2%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 93¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 93% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?" ha generato $4.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 3, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?", esplora i 25 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?" è "Orbán - Primo Ministro dell'Ungheria" a 93%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 93% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Takaichi - Primo Ministro del Giappone" a 2%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Il prossimo leader fuori dal potere prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.