Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite advances in reasoning models like o3, which hit human-level on benchmarks such as ARC-AGI but fall short of broad generalization. Recent developments, including OpenAI's AGI boss Fidji Simo taking leave on April 3 and Sam Altman's February timeline shift toward 2028, underscore scaling challenges, massive compute demands, and internal restructuring amid Microsoft tensions. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and xAI adds caution, with traders eyeing upcoming model releases or developer conferences as potential catalysts, though historical delays temper optimism.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOpenAI annuncia di aver raggiunto l'AGI prima del 2027?
OpenAI annuncia di aver raggiunto l'AGI prima del 2027?
Sì
$53,335 Vol.
$53,335 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$53,335 Vol.
$53,335 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite advances in reasoning models like o3, which hit human-level on benchmarks such as ARC-AGI but fall short of broad generalization. Recent developments, including OpenAI's AGI boss Fidji Simo taking leave on April 3 and Sam Altman's February timeline shift toward 2028, underscore scaling challenges, massive compute demands, and internal restructuring amid Microsoft tensions. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and xAI adds caution, with traders eyeing upcoming model releases or developer conferences as potential catalysts, though historical delays temper optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$53,335Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite advances in reasoning models like o3, which hit human-level on benchmarks such as ARC-AGI but fall short of broad generalization. Recent developments, including OpenAI's AGI boss Fidji Simo taking leave on April 3 and Sam Altman's February timeline shift toward 2028, underscore scaling challenges, massive compute demands, and internal restructuring amid Microsoft tensions. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and xAI adds caution, with traders eyeing upcoming model releases or developer conferences as potential catalysts, though historical delays temper optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$53,335Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite advances in reasoning models like o3, which hit human-level on benchmarks such as ARC-AGI but fall short of broad generalization. Recent developments, including OpenAI's AGI boss Fidji Simo taking leave on April 3 and Sam Altman's February timeline shift toward 2028, underscore scaling challenges, massive compute demands, and internal restructuring amid Microsoft tensions. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and xAI adds caution, with traders eyeing upcoming model releases or developer conferences as potential catalysts, though historical delays temper optimism.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti