Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an elevated 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first FDIC-insured failure of the year—stemming from weak capital and a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan amid tight liquidity. Regional banks remain under pressure from $875 billion in CRE debt maturities through year-end, office vacancy rates exceeding 20%, and collateral declines of 30-40%, with some institutions showing CRE exposures over 300% of equity. February's Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscored severe CRE downturns in a global recession backdrop, while system-wide unrealized losses top $300 billion. Upcoming Q1 earnings from regional lenders and ongoing refinancing challenges will test resilience.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$12,810 Vol.
$12,810 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$12,810 Vol.
$12,810 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an elevated 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first FDIC-insured failure of the year—stemming from weak capital and a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan amid tight liquidity. Regional banks remain under pressure from $875 billion in CRE debt maturities through year-end, office vacancy rates exceeding 20%, and collateral declines of 30-40%, with some institutions showing CRE exposures over 300% of equity. February's Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscored severe CRE downturns in a global recession backdrop, while system-wide unrealized losses top $300 billion. Upcoming Q1 earnings from regional lenders and ongoing refinancing challenges will test resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$12,810Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an elevated 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first FDIC-insured failure of the year—stemming from weak capital and a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan amid tight liquidity. Regional banks remain under pressure from $875 billion in CRE debt maturities through year-end, office vacancy rates exceeding 20%, and collateral declines of 30-40%, with some institutions showing CRE exposures over 300% of equity. February's Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscored severe CRE downturns in a global recession backdrop, while system-wide unrealized losses top $300 billion. Upcoming Q1 earnings from regional lenders and ongoing refinancing challenges will test resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$12,810Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an elevated 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first FDIC-insured failure of the year—stemming from weak capital and a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan amid tight liquidity. Regional banks remain under pressure from $875 billion in CRE debt maturities through year-end, office vacancy rates exceeding 20%, and collateral declines of 30-40%, with some institutions showing CRE exposures over 300% of equity. February's Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscored severe CRE downturns in a global recession backdrop, while system-wide unrealized losses top $300 billion. Upcoming Q1 earnings from regional lenders and ongoing refinancing challenges will test resilience.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti