Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistan mediation and expiring around April 22, US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed over the April 11-12 weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while signaling potential second-round negotiations within days. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, Hormuz control, full sanctions relief, security guarantees, and possible reparations, amid deep mutual distrust hardened by recent hostilities. No permanent peace framework has emerged, with diplomats from Turkey, Qatar, and others laying groundwork for further diplomacy as escalation risks loom.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo di pace permanente tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?
Accordo di pace permanente tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?
$7,788,172 Vol.
22 apr 2026
22 aprile
23%
30 aprile
38%
31 maggio
60%
30 giugno
73%
$7,788,172 Vol.
22 aprile
$5,155,788 Vol.
23%
30 aprile
$1,447,610 Vol.
38%
31 maggio
$955,340 Vol.
60%
30 giugno
$230,383 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistan mediation and expiring around April 22, US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed over the April 11-12 weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while signaling potential second-round negotiations within days. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, Hormuz control, full sanctions relief, security guarantees, and possible reparations, amid deep mutual distrust hardened by recent hostilities. No permanent peace framework has emerged, with diplomats from Turkey, Qatar, and others laying groundwork for further diplomacy as escalation risks loom.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$7,788,172Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistan mediation and expiring around April 22, US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed over the April 11-12 weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while signaling potential second-round negotiations within days. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, Hormuz control, full sanctions relief, security guarantees, and possible reparations, amid deep mutual distrust hardened by recent hostilities. No permanent peace framework has emerged, with diplomats from Turkey, Qatar, and others laying groundwork for further diplomacy as escalation risks loom.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,788,172Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistan mediation and expiring around April 22, US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed over the April 11-12 weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while signaling potential second-round negotiations within days. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, Hormuz control, full sanctions relief, security guarantees, and possible reparations, amid deep mutual distrust hardened by recent hostilities. No permanent peace framework has emerged, with diplomats from Turkey, Qatar, and others laying groundwork for further diplomacy as escalation risks loom.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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