Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 11 after 21 hours without bridging gaps on Iran's nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, missile limits, and reparations, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire—agreed April 8—nearing expiration amid US blockade threats against Iranian ports. The Trump administration demands a 20-year uranium pause, while Iran insists on continuing enrichment and sovereignty over the strait, echoing irreconcilable positions from prior JCPOA revival efforts. Officials signal a potential second round this week via Pakistani or Omani mediation, but deep strategic divides from the 2026 conflict sustain uncertainty in trader consensus for a permanent peace deal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo di pace permanente tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?
Accordo di pace permanente tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?
$7,672,176 Vol.
31 mag 2026
22 aprile
22%
30 aprile
38%
31 maggio
60%
30 giugno
73%
$7,672,176 Vol.
22 aprile
$5,099,874 Vol.
22%
30 aprile
$1,405,437 Vol.
38%
31 maggio
$940,506 Vol.
60%
30 giugno
$227,371 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 11 after 21 hours without bridging gaps on Iran's nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, missile limits, and reparations, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire—agreed April 8—nearing expiration amid US blockade threats against Iranian ports. The Trump administration demands a 20-year uranium pause, while Iran insists on continuing enrichment and sovereignty over the strait, echoing irreconcilable positions from prior JCPOA revival efforts. Officials signal a potential second round this week via Pakistani or Omani mediation, but deep strategic divides from the 2026 conflict sustain uncertainty in trader consensus for a permanent peace deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$7,672,176Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 11 after 21 hours without bridging gaps on Iran's nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, missile limits, and reparations, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire—agreed April 8—nearing expiration amid US blockade threats against Iranian ports. The Trump administration demands a 20-year uranium pause, while Iran insists on continuing enrichment and sovereignty over the strait, echoing irreconcilable positions from prior JCPOA revival efforts. Officials signal a potential second round this week via Pakistani or Omani mediation, but deep strategic divides from the 2026 conflict sustain uncertainty in trader consensus for a permanent peace deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,672,176Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 11 after 21 hours without bridging gaps on Iran's nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, missile limits, and reparations, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire—agreed April 8—nearing expiration amid US blockade threats against Iranian ports. The Trump administration demands a 20-year uranium pause, while Iran insists on continuing enrichment and sovereignty over the strait, echoing irreconcilable positions from prior JCPOA revival efforts. Officials signal a potential second round this week via Pakistani or Omani mediation, but deep strategic divides from the 2026 conflict sustain uncertainty in trader consensus for a permanent peace deal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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