Recent polling consistently shows 61-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain in Canada on the October 19, 2026 referendum question, compared to 19-33% supporting steps toward a future binding separation vote, with the gap holding across multiple firms including Angus Reid and Ipsos. This reflects limited separatist momentum despite verified petitions from both sides, ongoing court appeals over Indigenous consultation requirements, and Premier Danielle Smith's addition of the non-binding question. Traders view the strong, stable preference for staying in Confederation—rooted in regional, partisan, and economic considerations—as the dominant factor behind the high implied probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
7% probabilità
$262,674 Vol.
$262,674 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$262,674 Vol.
$262,674 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling consistently shows 61-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain in Canada on the October 19, 2026 referendum question, compared to 19-33% supporting steps toward a future binding separation vote, with the gap holding across multiple firms including Angus Reid and Ipsos. This reflects limited separatist momentum despite verified petitions from both sides, ongoing court appeals over Indigenous consultation requirements, and Premier Danielle Smith's addition of the non-binding question. Traders view the strong, stable preference for staying in Confederation—rooted in regional, partisan, and economic considerations—as the dominant factor behind the high implied probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$262,674Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling consistently shows 61-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain in Canada on the October 19, 2026 referendum question, compared to 19-33% supporting steps toward a future binding separation vote, with the gap holding across multiple firms including Angus Reid and Ipsos. This reflects limited separatist momentum despite verified petitions from both sides, ongoing court appeals over Indigenous consultation requirements, and Premier Danielle Smith's addition of the non-binding question. Traders view the strong, stable preference for staying in Confederation—rooted in regional, partisan, and economic considerations—as the dominant factor behind the high implied probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$262,674Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent polling consistently shows 61-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain in Canada on the October 19, 2026 referendum question, compared to 19-33% supporting steps toward a future binding separation vote, with the gap holding across multiple firms including Angus Reid and Ipsos. This reflects limited separatist momentum despite verified petitions from both sides, ongoing court appeals over Indigenous consultation requirements, and Premier Danielle Smith's addition of the non-binding question. Traders view the strong, stable preference for staying in Confederation—rooted in regional, partisan, and economic considerations—as the dominant factor behind the high implied probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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