Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US strikes, which also eliminated dozens of senior officials, sparked nationwide protests continuing from late 2025, yet the regime has contained unrest through brutal crackdowns, prolonged internet blackouts, and leadership continuity under figures like Mojtaba Khamenei. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi's March speeches at CPAC and announcements accepting transitional leadership responsibility, alongside claims of insider support, have rallied opposition but failed to secure military defections or power seizures by mid-April. Absent mass IRGC shifts or foreign intervention breakthroughs, structural barriers sustain the "No" dominance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoReza Pahlavi guiderà l'Iran nel 2026?
Reza Pahlavi guiderà l'Iran nel 2026?
Sì
$1,059,054 Vol.
$1,059,054 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,059,054 Vol.
$1,059,054 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US strikes, which also eliminated dozens of senior officials, sparked nationwide protests continuing from late 2025, yet the regime has contained unrest through brutal crackdowns, prolonged internet blackouts, and leadership continuity under figures like Mojtaba Khamenei. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi's March speeches at CPAC and announcements accepting transitional leadership responsibility, alongside claims of insider support, have rallied opposition but failed to secure military defections or power seizures by mid-April. Absent mass IRGC shifts or foreign intervention breakthroughs, structural barriers sustain the "No" dominance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,059,054Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US strikes, which also eliminated dozens of senior officials, sparked nationwide protests continuing from late 2025, yet the regime has contained unrest through brutal crackdowns, prolonged internet blackouts, and leadership continuity under figures like Mojtaba Khamenei. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi's March speeches at CPAC and announcements accepting transitional leadership responsibility, alongside claims of insider support, have rallied opposition but failed to secure military defections or power seizures by mid-April. Absent mass IRGC shifts or foreign intervention breakthroughs, structural barriers sustain the "No" dominance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,059,054Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US strikes, which also eliminated dozens of senior officials, sparked nationwide protests continuing from late 2025, yet the regime has contained unrest through brutal crackdowns, prolonged internet blackouts, and leadership continuity under figures like Mojtaba Khamenei. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi's March speeches at CPAC and announcements accepting transitional leadership responsibility, alongside claims of insider support, have rallied opposition but failed to secure military defections or power seizures by mid-April. Absent mass IRGC shifts or foreign intervention breakthroughs, structural barriers sustain the "No" dominance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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