Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.8% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by its survival through January 2026 mass protests—sparked by currency collapse and met with a deadly crackdown killing thousands—and a subsequent US-Israeli air campaign that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but ended in an April 8 ceasefire. Recent developments show the regime consolidating power via intensified repression, internet blackouts exceeding 40 days, proxy redeployments for domestic control, and planned executions of protesters like Bita Hemmati, stifling dissent despite oil export collapses fueling hyperinflation. With the ceasefire expiring April 22 amid US-Iran talks, no mass unrest has reemerged, underscoring structural resilience; shifts would require sudden escalation, elite defections, or uncontainable economic implosion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$1,550,671 Vol.
$1,550,671 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$1,550,671 Vol.
$1,550,671 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.8% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by its survival through January 2026 mass protests—sparked by currency collapse and met with a deadly crackdown killing thousands—and a subsequent US-Israeli air campaign that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but ended in an April 8 ceasefire. Recent developments show the regime consolidating power via intensified repression, internet blackouts exceeding 40 days, proxy redeployments for domestic control, and planned executions of protesters like Bita Hemmati, stifling dissent despite oil export collapses fueling hyperinflation. With the ceasefire expiring April 22 amid US-Iran talks, no mass unrest has reemerged, underscoring structural resilience; shifts would require sudden escalation, elite defections, or uncontainable economic implosion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,550,671Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.8% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by its survival through January 2026 mass protests—sparked by currency collapse and met with a deadly crackdown killing thousands—and a subsequent US-Israeli air campaign that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but ended in an April 8 ceasefire. Recent developments show the regime consolidating power via intensified repression, internet blackouts exceeding 40 days, proxy redeployments for domestic control, and planned executions of protesters like Bita Hemmati, stifling dissent despite oil export collapses fueling hyperinflation. With the ceasefire expiring April 22 amid US-Iran talks, no mass unrest has reemerged, underscoring structural resilience; shifts would require sudden escalation, elite defections, or uncontainable economic implosion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,550,671Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.8% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by its survival through January 2026 mass protests—sparked by currency collapse and met with a deadly crackdown killing thousands—and a subsequent US-Israeli air campaign that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but ended in an April 8 ceasefire. Recent developments show the regime consolidating power via intensified repression, internet blackouts exceeding 40 days, proxy redeployments for domestic control, and planned executions of protesters like Bita Hemmati, stifling dissent despite oil export collapses fueling hyperinflation. With the ceasefire expiring April 22 amid US-Iran talks, no mass unrest has reemerged, underscoring structural resilience; shifts would require sudden escalation, elite defections, or uncontainable economic implosion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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