Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.2% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and effective crackdowns on the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic crisis and war escalations with Israel and the US. Despite US and Israeli airstrikes degrading military infrastructure and the March 8 leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who is recovering from severe injuries reported April 11—security forces have imposed internet shutdowns and arrested dissenters, preventing widespread collapse. Historical resilience against uprisings underscores this positioning, though scenarios like IRGC defections, uncontainable mass protests, or direct foreign invasion could still shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$1,505,646 Vol.
$1,505,646 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$1,505,646 Vol.
$1,505,646 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.2% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and effective crackdowns on the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic crisis and war escalations with Israel and the US. Despite US and Israeli airstrikes degrading military infrastructure and the March 8 leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who is recovering from severe injuries reported April 11—security forces have imposed internet shutdowns and arrested dissenters, preventing widespread collapse. Historical resilience against uprisings underscores this positioning, though scenarios like IRGC defections, uncontainable mass protests, or direct foreign invasion could still shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,505,646Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.2% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and effective crackdowns on the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic crisis and war escalations with Israel and the US. Despite US and Israeli airstrikes degrading military infrastructure and the March 8 leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who is recovering from severe injuries reported April 11—security forces have imposed internet shutdowns and arrested dissenters, preventing widespread collapse. Historical resilience against uprisings underscores this positioning, though scenarios like IRGC defections, uncontainable mass protests, or direct foreign invasion could still shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,505,650Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.2% that the Iranian regime will not fall by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and effective crackdowns on the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic crisis and war escalations with Israel and the US. Despite US and Israeli airstrikes degrading military infrastructure and the March 8 leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who is recovering from severe injuries reported April 11—security forces have imposed internet shutdowns and arrested dissenters, preventing widespread collapse. Historical resilience against uprisings underscores this positioning, though scenarios like IRGC defections, uncontainable mass protests, or direct foreign invasion could still shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti