Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elites continues to underpin trader expectations of stability through year-end. Recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, alongside dozens of other generals, have reinforced centralized command and ideological discipline, reducing the institutional space for coordinated challenges. Unverified social media claims of leadership illness or factional mobilization following the September BRICS summit lack confirmation from official schedules or independent reporting and have not altered visible continuity in governance. While a sudden verified health event or acute external shock could still introduce uncertainty, the party’s mechanisms for managing elite turnover and enforcing loyalty support the current high implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$156,956 Vol.
$156,956 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$156,956 Vol.
$156,956 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elites continues to underpin trader expectations of stability through year-end. Recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, alongside dozens of other generals, have reinforced centralized command and ideological discipline, reducing the institutional space for coordinated challenges. Unverified social media claims of leadership illness or factional mobilization following the September BRICS summit lack confirmation from official schedules or independent reporting and have not altered visible continuity in governance. While a sudden verified health event or acute external shock could still introduce uncertainty, the party’s mechanisms for managing elite turnover and enforcing loyalty support the current high implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$156,956終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elites continues to underpin trader expectations of stability through year-end. Recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, alongside dozens of other generals, have reinforced centralized command and ideological discipline, reducing the institutional space for coordinated challenges. Unverified social media claims of leadership illness or factional mobilization following the September BRICS summit lack confirmation from official schedules or independent reporting and have not altered visible continuity in governance. While a sudden verified health event or acute external shock could still introduce uncertainty, the party’s mechanisms for managing elite turnover and enforcing loyalty support the current high implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$156,956終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elites continues to underpin trader expectations of stability through year-end. Recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, alongside dozens of other generals, have reinforced centralized command and ideological discipline, reducing the institutional space for coordinated challenges. Unverified social media claims of leadership illness or factional mobilization following the September BRICS summit lack confirmation from official schedules or independent reporting and have not altered visible continuity in governance. While a sudden verified health event or acute external shock could still introduce uncertainty, the party’s mechanisms for managing elite turnover and enforcing loyalty support the current high implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問