Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing leadership purges, including the January 2026 removal of senior General Zhang Youxia and other top commanders on corruption charges. These actions have reinforced centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with the military demonstrating continued obedience amid China's surveillance apparatus and absence of organized elite opposition. Traders assign a 97% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated power structure and lack of recent credible challenges. While low-probability shifts could arise from Xi's sudden health issues, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignment, or unforeseen succession disputes ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current evidence points to sustained stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$153,493 Vol.
$153,493 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$153,493 Vol.
$153,493 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing leadership purges, including the January 2026 removal of senior General Zhang Youxia and other top commanders on corruption charges. These actions have reinforced centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with the military demonstrating continued obedience amid China's surveillance apparatus and absence of organized elite opposition. Traders assign a 97% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated power structure and lack of recent credible challenges. While low-probability shifts could arise from Xi's sudden health issues, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignment, or unforeseen succession disputes ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current evidence points to sustained stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$153,493終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing leadership purges, including the January 2026 removal of senior General Zhang Youxia and other top commanders on corruption charges. These actions have reinforced centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with the military demonstrating continued obedience amid China's surveillance apparatus and absence of organized elite opposition. Traders assign a 97% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated power structure and lack of recent credible challenges. While low-probability shifts could arise from Xi's sudden health issues, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignment, or unforeseen succession disputes ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current evidence points to sustained stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$153,493終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing leadership purges, including the January 2026 removal of senior General Zhang Youxia and other top commanders on corruption charges. These actions have reinforced centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with the military demonstrating continued obedience amid China's surveillance apparatus and absence of organized elite opposition. Traders assign a 97% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated power structure and lack of recent credible challenges. While low-probability shifts could arise from Xi's sudden health issues, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignment, or unforeseen succession disputes ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current evidence points to sustained stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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