Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, producing the 63.5 percent market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause. June CPI printed at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, while the July meeting featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and left policy unchanged for the fifth straight time. Forward-looking measures, including the June dot plot showing a higher median year-end 2026 rate projection, reinforce the hawkish tilt. The 35.5 percent weighting on “Other” captures scenarios with a September hike, while the minimal 1.6 percent on any cut sequence reflects limited scope for easing before inflation moderates further. The August CPI release and September deliberations remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.6%
$695,116 Vol.
$695,116 Vol.
2026/09/16
Pause–Pause–Pause
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
36%
Pause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.6%
$695,116 Vol.
$695,116 Vol.
2026/09/16
Pause–Pause–Pause
$279,097 Vol.
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,074 Vol.
2%
Other
$298,069 Vol.
36%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, producing the 63.5 percent market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause. June CPI printed at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, while the July meeting featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and left policy unchanged for the fifth straight time. Forward-looking measures, including the June dot plot showing a higher median year-end 2026 rate projection, reinforce the hawkish tilt. The 35.5 percent weighting on “Other” captures scenarios with a September hike, while the minimal 1.6 percent on any cut sequence reflects limited scope for easing before inflation moderates further. The August CPI release and September deliberations remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$695,116終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, producing the 63.5 percent market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause. June CPI printed at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, while the July meeting featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and left policy unchanged for the fifth straight time. Forward-looking measures, including the June dot plot showing a higher median year-end 2026 rate projection, reinforce the hawkish tilt. The 35.5 percent weighting on “Other” captures scenarios with a September hike, while the minimal 1.6 percent on any cut sequence reflects limited scope for easing before inflation moderates further. The August CPI release and September deliberations remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$695,116終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, producing the 63.5 percent market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause. June CPI printed at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, while the July meeting featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and left policy unchanged for the fifth straight time. Forward-looking measures, including the June dot plot showing a higher median year-end 2026 rate projection, reinforce the hawkish tilt. The 35.5 percent weighting on “Other” captures scenarios with a September hike, while the minimal 1.6 percent on any cut sequence reflects limited scope for easing before inflation moderates further. The August CPI release and September deliberations remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問