Recent August 2026 CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and resilient August payrolls of 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1% have shifted market-implied odds toward a September 15-16 FOMC hike, with traders now pricing roughly 87-90% odds of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent above-target PCE inflation near 3.6% projected for year-end, elevated energy prices, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% goal create a data-dependent path for the October and December meetings. The closely matched probabilities across hike-pause combinations reflect uncertainty over subsequent releases, with the September dot plot and October employment report likely to differentiate outcomes amid firm labor market conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 24%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 24%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 20%
連続利上げ 17%
$28,603 Vol.
$28,603 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
24%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
20%
連続利上げ
17%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
24%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
3%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
10%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
3%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
2%
その他
7%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 24%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 24%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 20%
連続利上げ 17%
$28,603 Vol.
$28,603 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
$1,935 Vol.
24%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
$1,822 Vol.
20%
連続利上げ
$1,827 Vol.
17%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
$3,085 Vol.
24%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
$1,654 Vol.
3%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
$14,815 Vol.
10%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
$1,351 Vol.
3%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
$1,622 Vol.
2%
その他
$491 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent August 2026 CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and resilient August payrolls of 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1% have shifted market-implied odds toward a September 15-16 FOMC hike, with traders now pricing roughly 87-90% odds of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent above-target PCE inflation near 3.6% projected for year-end, elevated energy prices, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% goal create a data-dependent path for the October and December meetings. The closely matched probabilities across hike-pause combinations reflect uncertainty over subsequent releases, with the September dot plot and October employment report likely to differentiate outcomes amid firm labor market conditions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$28,603終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent August 2026 CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and resilient August payrolls of 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1% have shifted market-implied odds toward a September 15-16 FOMC hike, with traders now pricing roughly 87-90% odds of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent above-target PCE inflation near 3.6% projected for year-end, elevated energy prices, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% goal create a data-dependent path for the October and December meetings. The closely matched probabilities across hike-pause combinations reflect uncertainty over subsequent releases, with the September dot plot and October employment report likely to differentiate outcomes amid firm labor market conditions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$28,603終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and resilient August payrolls of 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1% have shifted market-implied odds toward a September 15-16 FOMC hike, with traders now pricing roughly 87-90% odds of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent above-target PCE inflation near 3.6% projected for year-end, elevated energy prices, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% goal create a data-dependent path for the October and December meetings. The closely matched probabilities across hike-pause combinations reflect uncertainty over subsequent releases, with the September dot plot and October employment report likely to differentiate outcomes amid firm labor market conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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