**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) currently project a maximum of 27–29 °C for the Valle de México on August 6, 2026, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 26 °C and 27 °C.** Mid-summer conditions feature typical rainy-season dynamics: daytime heating under partly cloudy skies followed by afternoon convection that brings showers, thunderstorms, and increased cloud cover. These factors limit peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology for Mexico City (elevation ~2,240 m) shows average daily highs near 24–25 °C, with occasional excursions above 27 °C only when clear, stable conditions prevail. Recent model guidance and SMN outlooks indicate no major heat anomaly or suppressed rainfall, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27 °C and explaining why probabilities decay sharply above 28 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent official guidance and the high likelihood of convective cooling when assigning the highest implied odds to the 26–27 °C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月6日のメキシコシティの最高気温は？
8月6日のメキシコシティの最高気温は？
26°C 36%
27°C 27%
25°C 17%
28°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/06
23℃以下
2%
24℃
3%
25°C
17%
26°C
36%
27°C
27%
28°C
14%
29°C
2%
30℃
2%
31°C
1%
32℃
1%
33°C以上
1%
26°C 36%
27°C 27%
25°C 17%
28°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/06
23℃以下
$22 Vol.
2%
24℃
$22 Vol.
3%
25°C
$109 Vol.
17%
26°C
$101 Vol.
36%
27°C
$23 Vol.
27%
28°C
$58 Vol.
14%
29°C
$143 Vol.
2%
30℃
$27 Vol.
2%
31°C
$229 Vol.
1%
32℃
$297 Vol.
1%
33°C以上
$681 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) currently project a maximum of 27–29 °C for the Valle de México on August 6, 2026, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 26 °C and 27 °C.**
Mid-summer conditions feature typical rainy-season dynamics: daytime heating under partly cloudy skies followed by afternoon convection that brings showers, thunderstorms, and increased cloud cover. These factors limit peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology for Mexico City (elevation ~2,240 m) shows average daily highs near 24–25 °C, with occasional excursions above 27 °C only when clear, stable conditions prevail. Recent model guidance and SMN outlooks indicate no major heat anomaly or suppressed rainfall, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27 °C and explaining why probabilities decay sharply above 28 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent official guidance and the high likelihood of convective cooling when assigning the highest implied odds to the 26–27 °C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
音量
$1,712終了日
2026/08/06マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) currently project a maximum of 27–29 °C for the Valle de México on August 6, 2026, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 26 °C and 27 °C.**
Mid-summer conditions feature typical rainy-season dynamics: daytime heating under partly cloudy skies followed by afternoon convection that brings showers, thunderstorms, and increased cloud cover. These factors limit peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology for Mexico City (elevation ~2,240 m) shows average daily highs near 24–25 °C, with occasional excursions above 27 °C only when clear, stable conditions prevail. Recent model guidance and SMN outlooks indicate no major heat anomaly or suppressed rainfall, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27 °C and explaining why probabilities decay sharply above 28 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent official guidance and the high likelihood of convective cooling when assigning the highest implied odds to the 26–27 °C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,712終了日
2026/08/06マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ET**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) currently project a maximum of 27–29 °C for the Valle de México on August 6, 2026, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 26 °C and 27 °C.** Mid-summer conditions feature typical rainy-season dynamics: daytime heating under partly cloudy skies followed by afternoon convection that brings showers, thunderstorms, and increased cloud cover. These factors limit peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology for Mexico City (elevation ~2,240 m) shows average daily highs near 24–25 °C, with occasional excursions above 27 °C only when clear, stable conditions prevail. Recent model guidance and SMN outlooks indicate no major heat anomaly or suppressed rainfall, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27 °C and explaining why probabilities decay sharply above 28 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent official guidance and the high likelihood of convective cooling when assigning the highest implied odds to the 26–27 °C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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