Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Munich's August 31 high temperature, with models showing a tight but uncertain range centered near seasonal norms. Recent European ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate variable high-pressure influence and modest warm-air advection, producing daily maximum spreads of roughly 22–25 °C; equal 25 % market-implied odds across these bins reflect the current model consensus and limited new observational data. Historical August climatology for Munich places average highs near 23 °C, while any shift in steering flow or cloud cover over the next 48 hours could tip the outcome. Updated model cycles and surface observations expected within 24 hours remain the key catalysts that could narrow the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月31日のミュンヘンの最高気温は？
8月31日のミュンヘンの最高気温は？
25°C 38%
26°C 28%
23°C 23%
24°C 23%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
18°C or below
3%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
19%
23°C
23%
24°C
23%
25°C
38%
26°C
28%
27°C
7%
28°C or higher
7%
25°C 38%
26°C 28%
23°C 23%
24°C 23%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
23%
24°C
$0 Vol.
23%
25°C
$0 Vol.
38%
26°C
$6 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Munich's August 31 high temperature, with models showing a tight but uncertain range centered near seasonal norms. Recent European ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate variable high-pressure influence and modest warm-air advection, producing daily maximum spreads of roughly 22–25 °C; equal 25 % market-implied odds across these bins reflect the current model consensus and limited new observational data. Historical August climatology for Munich places average highs near 23 °C, while any shift in steering flow or cloud cover over the next 48 hours could tip the outcome. Updated model cycles and surface observations expected within 24 hours remain the key catalysts that could narrow the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Munich's August 31 high temperature, with models showing a tight but uncertain range centered near seasonal norms. Recent European ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate variable high-pressure influence and modest warm-air advection, producing daily maximum spreads of roughly 22–25 °C; equal 25 % market-implied odds across these bins reflect the current model consensus and limited new observational data. Historical August climatology for Munich places average highs near 23 °C, while any shift in steering flow or cloud cover over the next 48 hours could tip the outcome. Updated model cycles and surface observations expected within 24 hours remain the key catalysts that could narrow the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETShort-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Munich's August 31 high temperature, with models showing a tight but uncertain range centered near seasonal norms. Recent European ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate variable high-pressure influence and modest warm-air advection, producing daily maximum spreads of roughly 22–25 °C; equal 25 % market-implied odds across these bins reflect the current model consensus and limited new observational data. Historical August climatology for Munich places average highs near 23 °C, while any shift in steering flow or cloud cover over the next 48 hours could tip the outcome. Updated model cycles and surface observations expected within 24 hours remain the key catalysts that could narrow the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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