**Forecast models from sources including JMA and international ensembles currently project Tokyo's high on September 2, 2026, in the low 30s Celsius under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with southerly flow.** This places 31°C and 32°C as the dominant outcomes in the market, reflecting tight clustering in guidance around those values with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Late-August warmth lingers into early September before typical seasonal cooling accelerates, but a transient weather front expected later in the week has limited influence on the 2nd itself. Low precipitation chances (under 20% in most runs) support minimal evaporative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo can add 1–2°C to official readings. Historical early-September averages near 28–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs have trended slightly warmer than climatology. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily, with the 31°C bin commanding the largest share of probability as the mode of the forecast distribution. Minor upside risk to 33°C exists if skies clear more than expected, while downside to 30°C would require greater cloudiness or earlier frontal passage. Updated model cycles and any JMA briefing on the 1st will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月2日の東京の最高気温は？
9月2日の東京の最高気温は？
31°C 40%
32°C 26%
30°C 15%
33°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/09/02
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
15%
31°C
40%
32°C
26%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 40%
32°C 26%
30°C 15%
33°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/09/02
26°C or below
$1,072 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$18 Vol.
1%
28°C
$53 Vol.
3%
29°C
$108 Vol.
4%
30°C
$61 Vol.
15%
31°C
$193 Vol.
40%
32°C
$45 Vol.
26%
33°C
$299 Vol.
11%
34°C
$162 Vol.
2%
35°C
$109 Vol.
3%
36°C or higher
$117 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including JMA and international ensembles currently project Tokyo's high on September 2, 2026, in the low 30s Celsius under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with southerly flow.** This places 31°C and 32°C as the dominant outcomes in the market, reflecting tight clustering in guidance around those values with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover.
Late-August warmth lingers into early September before typical seasonal cooling accelerates, but a transient weather front expected later in the week has limited influence on the 2nd itself. Low precipitation chances (under 20% in most runs) support minimal evaporative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo can add 1–2°C to official readings. Historical early-September averages near 28–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs have trended slightly warmer than climatology.
Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily, with the 31°C bin commanding the largest share of probability as the mode of the forecast distribution. Minor upside risk to 33°C exists if skies clear more than expected, while downside to 30°C would require greater cloudiness or earlier frontal passage. Updated model cycles and any JMA briefing on the 1st will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$2,236終了日
2026/09/02マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including JMA and international ensembles currently project Tokyo's high on September 2, 2026, in the low 30s Celsius under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with southerly flow.** This places 31°C and 32°C as the dominant outcomes in the market, reflecting tight clustering in guidance around those values with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover.
Late-August warmth lingers into early September before typical seasonal cooling accelerates, but a transient weather front expected later in the week has limited influence on the 2nd itself. Low precipitation chances (under 20% in most runs) support minimal evaporative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo can add 1–2°C to official readings. Historical early-September averages near 28–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs have trended slightly warmer than climatology.
Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily, with the 31°C bin commanding the largest share of probability as the mode of the forecast distribution. Minor upside risk to 33°C exists if skies clear more than expected, while downside to 30°C would require greater cloudiness or earlier frontal passage. Updated model cycles and any JMA briefing on the 1st will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,236終了日
2026/09/02マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast models from sources including JMA and international ensembles currently project Tokyo's high on September 2, 2026, in the low 30s Celsius under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with southerly flow.** This places 31°C and 32°C as the dominant outcomes in the market, reflecting tight clustering in guidance around those values with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Late-August warmth lingers into early September before typical seasonal cooling accelerates, but a transient weather front expected later in the week has limited influence on the 2nd itself. Low precipitation chances (under 20% in most runs) support minimal evaporative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo can add 1–2°C to official readings. Historical early-September averages near 28–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs have trended slightly warmer than climatology. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily, with the 31°C bin commanding the largest share of probability as the mode of the forecast distribution. Minor upside risk to 33°C exists if skies clear more than expected, while downside to 30°C would require greater cloudiness or earlier frontal passage. Updated model cycles and any JMA briefing on the 1st will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問