Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a 20-40% chance of showers or drizzle for Tokyo on August 31, which is expected to limit peak heating compared to clearer days. Model consensus points to a daytime high near 29-31°C, influenced by easterly flow, high humidity near 70-80%, and residual moisture from earlier unsettled weather, with urban heat island effects potentially adding 1-2°C locally. Trader positioning around 29-30°C reflects this narrow range amid slight model disagreements on cloud timing and any late-day clearing, while lower odds for 32°C or above align with suppressed insolation and historical late-August averages near 30°C at the Tokyo station. Updated JMA guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月31日の東京の最高気温は？
8月31日の東京の最高気温は？
30°C 34%
29°C 30%
31°C 16%
28°C 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
12%
29°C
30%
30°C
34%
31°C
16%
32°C
7%
33°C
5%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 34%
29°C 30%
31°C 16%
28°C 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
25°C or below
$40 Vol.
1%
26°C
$85 Vol.
2%
27°C
$100 Vol.
5%
28°C
$91 Vol.
12%
29°C
$168 Vol.
30%
30°C
$90 Vol.
34%
31°C
$50 Vol.
16%
32°C
$5 Vol.
7%
33°C
$0 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a 20-40% chance of showers or drizzle for Tokyo on August 31, which is expected to limit peak heating compared to clearer days. Model consensus points to a daytime high near 29-31°C, influenced by easterly flow, high humidity near 70-80%, and residual moisture from earlier unsettled weather, with urban heat island effects potentially adding 1-2°C locally. Trader positioning around 29-30°C reflects this narrow range amid slight model disagreements on cloud timing and any late-day clearing, while lower odds for 32°C or above align with suppressed insolation and historical late-August averages near 30°C at the Tokyo station. Updated JMA guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$629終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a 20-40% chance of showers or drizzle for Tokyo on August 31, which is expected to limit peak heating compared to clearer days. Model consensus points to a daytime high near 29-31°C, influenced by easterly flow, high humidity near 70-80%, and residual moisture from earlier unsettled weather, with urban heat island effects potentially adding 1-2°C locally. Trader positioning around 29-30°C reflects this narrow range amid slight model disagreements on cloud timing and any late-day clearing, while lower odds for 32°C or above align with suppressed insolation and historical late-August averages near 30°C at the Tokyo station. Updated JMA guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$629終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a 20-40% chance of showers or drizzle for Tokyo on August 31, which is expected to limit peak heating compared to clearer days. Model consensus points to a daytime high near 29-31°C, influenced by easterly flow, high humidity near 70-80%, and residual moisture from earlier unsettled weather, with urban heat island effects potentially adding 1-2°C locally. Trader positioning around 29-30°C reflects this narrow range amid slight model disagreements on cloud timing and any late-day clearing, while lower odds for 32°C or above align with suppressed insolation and historical late-August averages near 30°C at the Tokyo station. Updated JMA guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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