Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible on August 31, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows in the mid-50s to low-60s°F. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 55°F-or-below outcome at 40.5% implied probability, followed closely by 60-61°F bins. Key variables include the timing and coverage of cloud decks and any precipitation, which can raise minimum temperatures by several degrees compared to clear-sky conditions. Historical August 31 averages near 55°F provide context, but current atmospheric moisture and weak frontal influences introduce divergence among model runs, explaining the clustered probabilities across the 55-65°F range. Updated National Weather Service guidance expected in the next 24-48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.