The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/12/30
6.00%
50%
5.80%
50%
5.70%
50%
5.65%
50%
5.60%
50%
5.55%
50%
5.50%
50%
5.45％
51%
5.40%
51%
$0.00 Vol.
6.00%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.80%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.70%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.65%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.60%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.55%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.50%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.45％
$0 Vol.
51%
5.40%
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問