Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan following a fragile two-week ceasefire after June 2025 airstrikes, center on Iran's nuclear program as a key sticking point. The US demands Iran surrender its estimated 440kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium (60% purity), accept a 20-year enrichment moratorium, and grant full IAEA access to facilities, including those damaged in strikes. Tehran has signaled willingness for dilution or token enrichment but rejects full handover or export, as confirmed by recent official statements. Yesterday, the US rebuffed Russia's offer to custody the stockpile. IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding stockpile amid stalled talks, with a potential second round in Islamabad soon that could shift diplomatic postures or trigger escalation. Trader consensus reflects deep divisions, with low implied probabilities for near-term agreement due to these unresolved red lines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$841,956 Vol.
2026/12/31
4月30日
26%
6月30日
45%
12月31日
63%
$841,956 Vol.
4月30日
$547,346 Vol.
26%
6月30日
$170,724 Vol.
45%
12月31日
$141,862 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan following a fragile two-week ceasefire after June 2025 airstrikes, center on Iran's nuclear program as a key sticking point. The US demands Iran surrender its estimated 440kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium (60% purity), accept a 20-year enrichment moratorium, and grant full IAEA access to facilities, including those damaged in strikes. Tehran has signaled willingness for dilution or token enrichment but rejects full handover or export, as confirmed by recent official statements. Yesterday, the US rebuffed Russia's offer to custody the stockpile. IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding stockpile amid stalled talks, with a potential second round in Islamabad soon that could shift diplomatic postures or trigger escalation. Trader consensus reflects deep divisions, with low implied probabilities for near-term agreement due to these unresolved red lines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
音量
$841,956終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan following a fragile two-week ceasefire after June 2025 airstrikes, center on Iran's nuclear program as a key sticking point. The US demands Iran surrender its estimated 440kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium (60% purity), accept a 20-year enrichment moratorium, and grant full IAEA access to facilities, including those damaged in strikes. Tehran has signaled willingness for dilution or token enrichment but rejects full handover or export, as confirmed by recent official statements. Yesterday, the US rebuffed Russia's offer to custody the stockpile. IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding stockpile amid stalled talks, with a potential second round in Islamabad soon that could shift diplomatic postures or trigger escalation. Trader consensus reflects deep divisions, with low implied probabilities for near-term agreement due to these unresolved red lines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$841,956終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan following a fragile two-week ceasefire after June 2025 airstrikes, center on Iran's nuclear program as a key sticking point. The US demands Iran surrender its estimated 440kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium (60% purity), accept a 20-year enrichment moratorium, and grant full IAEA access to facilities, including those damaged in strikes. Tehran has signaled willingness for dilution or token enrichment but rejects full handover or export, as confirmed by recent official statements. Yesterday, the US rebuffed Russia's offer to custody the stockpile. IAEA reports highlight Iran's expanding stockpile amid stalled talks, with a potential second round in Islamabad soon that could shift diplomatic postures or trigger escalation. Trader consensus reflects deep divisions, with low implied probabilities for near-term agreement due to these unresolved red lines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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