A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan and backed by Israel, took effect on April 8 amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes that had targeted Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and energy infrastructure since late February. However, recent diplomatic setbacks—including the collapse of extension talks in Islamabad over the April 13-15 weekend and Iran's accusations of Israeli ceasefire violations via strikes in Lebanon—have prompted the US to launch a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and deploy additional troops to the region. President Trump has expressed optimism for resumed negotiations, but Iranian officials warn of retaliation if the blockade persists, sustaining trader focus on the ceasefire's expiration around April 22 as a potential flashpoint for renewed escalation or de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$41,911,854 Vol.
2026/06/30
4月7日
87%
4月15日
87%
4月30日
90%
5月15日
93%
6月30日
96%
12月31日
97%
$41,911,854 Vol.
4月7日
$15,114,091 Vol.
87%
4月15日
$8,912,049 Vol.
87%
4月30日
$3,817,915 Vol.
90%
5月15日
$3,403,230 Vol.
93%
6月30日
$2,821,924 Vol.
96%
12月31日
$2,679,903 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan and backed by Israel, took effect on April 8 amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes that had targeted Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and energy infrastructure since late February. However, recent diplomatic setbacks—including the collapse of extension talks in Islamabad over the April 13-15 weekend and Iran's accusations of Israeli ceasefire violations via strikes in Lebanon—have prompted the US to launch a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and deploy additional troops to the region. President Trump has expressed optimism for resumed negotiations, but Iranian officials warn of retaliation if the blockade persists, sustaining trader focus on the ceasefire's expiration around April 22 as a potential flashpoint for renewed escalation or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
マーケット開始日： Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$41,911,854終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan and backed by Israel, took effect on April 8 amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes that had targeted Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and energy infrastructure since late February. However, recent diplomatic setbacks—including the collapse of extension talks in Islamabad over the April 13-15 weekend and Iran's accusations of Israeli ceasefire violations via strikes in Lebanon—have prompted the US to launch a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and deploy additional troops to the region. President Trump has expressed optimism for resumed negotiations, but Iranian officials warn of retaliation if the blockade persists, sustaining trader focus on the ceasefire's expiration around April 22 as a potential flashpoint for renewed escalation or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
音量
$41,911,854終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan and backed by Israel, took effect on April 8 amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes that had targeted Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and energy infrastructure since late February. However, recent diplomatic setbacks—including the collapse of extension talks in Islamabad over the April 13-15 weekend and Iran's accusations of Israeli ceasefire violations via strikes in Lebanon—have prompted the US to launch a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and deploy additional troops to the region. President Trump has expressed optimism for resumed negotiations, but Iranian officials warn of retaliation if the blockade persists, sustaining trader focus on the ceasefire's expiration around April 22 as a potential flashpoint for renewed escalation or de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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