The US-Israel-Iran conflict, ignited by coordinated airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites, military leadership, and missile facilities, persists into its seventh week amid fragile diplomatic efforts. US Central Command enforces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 14, interdicting Iranian oil tankers to pressure Tehran economically, with no breaches reported. Pakistani mediators arrived in Iran on April 15 to revive stalled Islamabad talks, as the White House expresses optimism for a deal and President Trump signals potential resumption within days, following a brief two-week ceasefire pause around April 8. Iran has rejected prior proposals, launching retaliatory missiles at Israel and US assets earlier, while trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiations yield de-escalation before further military actions or regional spillover via proxies in Lebanon and Iraq.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$41,913,335 Vol.
2026/06/30
4月7日
87%
4月15日
87%
4月30日
90%
5月15日
93%
6月30日
96%
12月31日
97%
$41,913,335 Vol.
4月7日
$15,114,361 Vol.
87%
4月15日
$8,912,784 Vol.
87%
4月30日
$3,817,915 Vol.
90%
5月15日
$3,403,380 Vol.
93%
6月30日
$2,821,929 Vol.
96%
12月31日
$2,680,131 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, ignited by coordinated airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites, military leadership, and missile facilities, persists into its seventh week amid fragile diplomatic efforts. US Central Command enforces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 14, interdicting Iranian oil tankers to pressure Tehran economically, with no breaches reported. Pakistani mediators arrived in Iran on April 15 to revive stalled Islamabad talks, as the White House expresses optimism for a deal and President Trump signals potential resumption within days, following a brief two-week ceasefire pause around April 8. Iran has rejected prior proposals, launching retaliatory missiles at Israel and US assets earlier, while trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiations yield de-escalation before further military actions or regional spillover via proxies in Lebanon and Iraq.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
音量
$41,913,335終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, ignited by coordinated airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites, military leadership, and missile facilities, persists into its seventh week amid fragile diplomatic efforts. US Central Command enforces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 14, interdicting Iranian oil tankers to pressure Tehran economically, with no breaches reported. Pakistani mediators arrived in Iran on April 15 to revive stalled Islamabad talks, as the White House expresses optimism for a deal and President Trump signals potential resumption within days, following a brief two-week ceasefire pause around April 8. Iran has rejected prior proposals, launching retaliatory missiles at Israel and US assets earlier, while trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiations yield de-escalation before further military actions or regional spillover via proxies in Lebanon and Iraq.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
音量
$41,913,335終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel-Iran conflict, ignited by coordinated airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites, military leadership, and missile facilities, persists into its seventh week amid fragile diplomatic efforts. US Central Command enforces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 14, interdicting Iranian oil tankers to pressure Tehran economically, with no breaches reported. Pakistani mediators arrived in Iran on April 15 to revive stalled Islamabad talks, as the White House expresses optimism for a deal and President Trump signals potential resumption within days, following a brief two-week ceasefire pause around April 8. Iran has rejected prior proposals, launching retaliatory missiles at Israel and US assets earlier, while trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiations yield de-escalation before further military actions or regional spillover via proxies in Lebanon and Iraq.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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