Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's overnight low on August 31 will likely fall in the low 20s°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity under subtropical monsoon conditions that limit strong radiative cooling. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–22°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 22–24°C, with recent clearing after mid-month rains supporting the current consensus. Traders appear to weigh model spread and local urban heat effects against official guidance, leaving room for minor revisions as new runs become available closer to resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月31日の成都の最低気温は？
8月31日の成都の最低気温は？
19°C 77%
16°C or below 59%
17°C 57%
24°C 49%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
16°C or below
59%
17°C
57%
18°C
42%
19°C
77%
20°C
40%
21°C
30%
22°C
32%
23°C
25%
24°C
49%
25°C
49%
26°C or higher
2%
19°C 77%
16°C or below 59%
17°C 57%
24°C 49%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
59%
17°C
$0 Vol.
57%
18°C
$0 Vol.
42%
19°C
$0 Vol.
77%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
30%
22°C
$0 Vol.
32%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's overnight low on August 31 will likely fall in the low 20s°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity under subtropical monsoon conditions that limit strong radiative cooling. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–22°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 22–24°C, with recent clearing after mid-month rains supporting the current consensus. Traders appear to weigh model spread and local urban heat effects against official guidance, leaving room for minor revisions as new runs become available closer to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's overnight low on August 31 will likely fall in the low 20s°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity under subtropical monsoon conditions that limit strong radiative cooling. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–22°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 22–24°C, with recent clearing after mid-month rains supporting the current consensus. Traders appear to weigh model spread and local urban heat effects against official guidance, leaving room for minor revisions as new runs become available closer to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's overnight low on August 31 will likely fall in the low 20s°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity under subtropical monsoon conditions that limit strong radiative cooling. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–22°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 22–24°C, with recent clearing after mid-month rains supporting the current consensus. Traders appear to weigh model spread and local urban heat effects against official guidance, leaving room for minor revisions as new runs become available closer to resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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