**Forecast models show broad agreement on mild overnight conditions for Wellington on August 29, 2026, but diverge on the exact minimum due to uncertainties in cloud cover, wind mixing, and radiative cooling rates.** Recent northerly and northwesterly flows, following rain and strong gusts on the 28th, are expected to ease into clearer or partly cloudy skies overnight, promoting some surface cooling. Official guidance from MetService and international models points to a nighttime low near 9–10°C, consistent with late-winter climatology where average August minima sit around 6–9°C. Key differentiators among the tightly bunched 8–12°C outcomes include the timing of any clearing (allowing greater long-wave radiative loss under clear skies versus retained heat under clouds), sustained wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit boundary-layer decoupling, and local dew-point values near 5–7°C that cap how far temperatures can fall. Ensemble spreads in high-resolution runs reflect these variables, producing the observed market clustering as traders weigh the balance between calm radiative cooling and persistent mixing. Updated model cycles and local observations overnight will refine the precise threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月29日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
8月29日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
6°C or below 43%
8°C 27%
9°C 27%
10°C 27%
新規
新規
2026/08/29
6°C or below
43%
7°C
25%
8°C
27%
9°C
27%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
3%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
18%
6°C or below 43%
8°C 27%
9°C 27%
10°C 27%
新規
新規
2026/08/29
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
43%
7°C
$21 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$5 Vol.
3%
15°C
$5 Vol.
3%
16°C or higher
$5 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models show broad agreement on mild overnight conditions for Wellington on August 29, 2026, but diverge on the exact minimum due to uncertainties in cloud cover, wind mixing, and radiative cooling rates.**
Recent northerly and northwesterly flows, following rain and strong gusts on the 28th, are expected to ease into clearer or partly cloudy skies overnight, promoting some surface cooling. Official guidance from MetService and international models points to a nighttime low near 9–10°C, consistent with late-winter climatology where average August minima sit around 6–9°C.
Key differentiators among the tightly bunched 8–12°C outcomes include the timing of any clearing (allowing greater long-wave radiative loss under clear skies versus retained heat under clouds), sustained wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit boundary-layer decoupling, and local dew-point values near 5–7°C that cap how far temperatures can fall. Ensemble spreads in high-resolution runs reflect these variables, producing the observed market clustering as traders weigh the balance between calm radiative cooling and persistent mixing. Updated model cycles and local observations overnight will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$41終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models show broad agreement on mild overnight conditions for Wellington on August 29, 2026, but diverge on the exact minimum due to uncertainties in cloud cover, wind mixing, and radiative cooling rates.**
Recent northerly and northwesterly flows, following rain and strong gusts on the 28th, are expected to ease into clearer or partly cloudy skies overnight, promoting some surface cooling. Official guidance from MetService and international models points to a nighttime low near 9–10°C, consistent with late-winter climatology where average August minima sit around 6–9°C.
Key differentiators among the tightly bunched 8–12°C outcomes include the timing of any clearing (allowing greater long-wave radiative loss under clear skies versus retained heat under clouds), sustained wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit boundary-layer decoupling, and local dew-point values near 5–7°C that cap how far temperatures can fall. Ensemble spreads in high-resolution runs reflect these variables, producing the observed market clustering as traders weigh the balance between calm radiative cooling and persistent mixing. Updated model cycles and local observations overnight will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$41終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Forecast models show broad agreement on mild overnight conditions for Wellington on August 29, 2026, but diverge on the exact minimum due to uncertainties in cloud cover, wind mixing, and radiative cooling rates.** Recent northerly and northwesterly flows, following rain and strong gusts on the 28th, are expected to ease into clearer or partly cloudy skies overnight, promoting some surface cooling. Official guidance from MetService and international models points to a nighttime low near 9–10°C, consistent with late-winter climatology where average August minima sit around 6–9°C. Key differentiators among the tightly bunched 8–12°C outcomes include the timing of any clearing (allowing greater long-wave radiative loss under clear skies versus retained heat under clouds), sustained wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit boundary-layer decoupling, and local dew-point values near 5–7°C that cap how far temperatures can fall. Ensemble spreads in high-resolution runs reflect these variables, producing the observed market clustering as traders weigh the balance between calm radiative cooling and persistent mixing. Updated model cycles and local observations overnight will refine the precise threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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