**Strong northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are the dominant factors shaping forecasts for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 30.** Multiple models and MetService outlooks indicate a fine, sunny day with highs near 15–16°C and an overnight low centered around 9–11°C, consistent with late-winter norms for the region. Persistent NW flow (15–25+ knots, gusting higher) promotes mixing that limits sharp radiative cooling, while the lack of significant cloud cover or incoming fronts allows the air mass to moderate overnight. Traders have clustered heaviest on 10°C and 11°C outcomes because ensemble guidance and recent runs show the minimum hovering in that narrow band, with historical August lows near 9°C providing context but not overriding current patterns. Slightly lower probabilities on 7–8°C reflect the small chance of enhanced cooling if winds ease more than expected or if localized drainage occurs in sheltered spots. Conversely, the very low odds on 12°C+ or 6°C and below capture the low likelihood of either anomalous warmth from stronger mixing or a surprise cold surge. No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours to alter this setup; the broad westerly regime remains stable. Resolution will hinge on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official stations, where wind strength and any subtle changes in cloud or advection could tip the exact value within the tightly contested 9–11°C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月30日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
8月30日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
7°C 78%
8°C 78%
11°C 44%
10°C 40%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
6°C or below
2%
7°C
78%
8°C
78%
9°C
5%
10°C
40%
11°C
44%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
7°C 78%
8°C 78%
11°C 44%
10°C 40%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
7°C
$0 Vol.
78%
8°C
$10 Vol.
78%
9°C
$106 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
44%
12°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are the dominant factors shaping forecasts for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 30.** Multiple models and MetService outlooks indicate a fine, sunny day with highs near 15–16°C and an overnight low centered around 9–11°C, consistent with late-winter norms for the region. Persistent NW flow (15–25+ knots, gusting higher) promotes mixing that limits sharp radiative cooling, while the lack of significant cloud cover or incoming fronts allows the air mass to moderate overnight.
Traders have clustered heaviest on 10°C and 11°C outcomes because ensemble guidance and recent runs show the minimum hovering in that narrow band, with historical August lows near 9°C providing context but not overriding current patterns. Slightly lower probabilities on 7–8°C reflect the small chance of enhanced cooling if winds ease more than expected or if localized drainage occurs in sheltered spots. Conversely, the very low odds on 12°C+ or 6°C and below capture the low likelihood of either anomalous warmth from stronger mixing or a surprise cold surge.
No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours to alter this setup; the broad westerly regime remains stable. Resolution will hinge on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official stations, where wind strength and any subtle changes in cloud or advection could tip the exact value within the tightly contested 9–11°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$702終了日
2026/08/30マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are the dominant factors shaping forecasts for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 30.** Multiple models and MetService outlooks indicate a fine, sunny day with highs near 15–16°C and an overnight low centered around 9–11°C, consistent with late-winter norms for the region. Persistent NW flow (15–25+ knots, gusting higher) promotes mixing that limits sharp radiative cooling, while the lack of significant cloud cover or incoming fronts allows the air mass to moderate overnight.
Traders have clustered heaviest on 10°C and 11°C outcomes because ensemble guidance and recent runs show the minimum hovering in that narrow band, with historical August lows near 9°C providing context but not overriding current patterns. Slightly lower probabilities on 7–8°C reflect the small chance of enhanced cooling if winds ease more than expected or if localized drainage occurs in sheltered spots. Conversely, the very low odds on 12°C+ or 6°C and below capture the low likelihood of either anomalous warmth from stronger mixing or a surprise cold surge.
No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours to alter this setup; the broad westerly regime remains stable. Resolution will hinge on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official stations, where wind strength and any subtle changes in cloud or advection could tip the exact value within the tightly contested 9–11°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$702終了日
2026/08/30マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Strong northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are the dominant factors shaping forecasts for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 30.** Multiple models and MetService outlooks indicate a fine, sunny day with highs near 15–16°C and an overnight low centered around 9–11°C, consistent with late-winter norms for the region. Persistent NW flow (15–25+ knots, gusting higher) promotes mixing that limits sharp radiative cooling, while the lack of significant cloud cover or incoming fronts allows the air mass to moderate overnight. Traders have clustered heaviest on 10°C and 11°C outcomes because ensemble guidance and recent runs show the minimum hovering in that narrow band, with historical August lows near 9°C providing context but not overriding current patterns. Slightly lower probabilities on 7–8°C reflect the small chance of enhanced cooling if winds ease more than expected or if localized drainage occurs in sheltered spots. Conversely, the very low odds on 12°C+ or 6°C and below capture the low likelihood of either anomalous warmth from stronger mixing or a surprise cold surge. No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours to alter this setup; the broad westerly regime remains stable. Resolution will hinge on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official stations, where wind strength and any subtle changes in cloud or advection could tip the exact value within the tightly contested 9–11°C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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