**Forecast consensus for August 31 points to a mild winter maximum near 17–19 °C under stable easterly flow.** Multiple global and regional models, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate partly cloudy skies with light easterly to northeasterly winds moderating Atlantic air masses, limiting daytime heating while preventing strong cold advection. This setup produces afternoon highs typically in the upper teens Celsius, consistent with climatological late-August averages around 16–18 °C. **Close market clustering around 19–21 °C reflects model spread and residual uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing.** Minor variations in predicted insolation or a slight wind shift could push the daily maximum a degree or two higher or lower; ensemble guidance shows limited but non-zero probability of reaching 20–21 °C if skies clear earlier than expected. No major synoptic systems are forecast to arrive before the period, keeping probabilities tightly grouped rather than skewed toward extremes. Updated official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings and the next model cycles will provide the clearest signals for final resolution.