Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt, his established incumbency since 2009, and minimal primary opposition that secured his nomination with over 93% of the vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, faces structural barriers in a state last won by the GOP in a Senate contest in 2002, with forecasts projecting a double-digit margin favoring Democrats. Trader consensus around 96% for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts in voter coalitions. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still influence the November general election outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
97%
共和党
2%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,632 Vol.
97%
共和党
$2,946 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt, his established incumbency since 2009, and minimal primary opposition that secured his nomination with over 93% of the vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, faces structural barriers in a state last won by the GOP in a Senate contest in 2002, with forecasts projecting a double-digit margin favoring Democrats. Trader consensus around 96% for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts in voter coalitions. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still influence the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$6,578終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt, his established incumbency since 2009, and minimal primary opposition that secured his nomination with over 93% of the vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, faces structural barriers in a state last won by the GOP in a Senate contest in 2002, with forecasts projecting a double-digit margin favoring Democrats. Trader consensus around 96% for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts in voter coalitions. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still influence the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$6,578終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt, his established incumbency since 2009, and minimal primary opposition that secured his nomination with over 93% of the vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, faces structural barriers in a state last won by the GOP in a Senate contest in 2002, with forecasts projecting a double-digit margin favoring Democrats. Trader consensus around 96% for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts in voter coalitions. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still influence the November general election outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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