Trump allies have circulated draft executive orders and publicly urged a new national emergency declaration under the National Emergencies Act to address alleged foreign interference in U.S. elections, aiming to expand federal authority over voting procedures, mail ballots, and machines ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trump has declined to rule out the step, referenced it in interviews as a possible response to stalled legislation like the SAVE America Act, and delivered speeches highlighting declassified intelligence on election vulnerabilities. Courts have blocked or limited prior related executive orders on voter eligibility and mail voting, while an existing 2018 emergency order on foreign interference was continued in 2025 without triggering new election-specific powers. These factors, combined with midterm timing and ongoing litigation, shape the roughly 25% trader-implied probability of a qualifying declaration by December 31, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$193,032 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
19%
$193,032 Vol.
12月31日
$190,278 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump allies have circulated draft executive orders and publicly urged a new national emergency declaration under the National Emergencies Act to address alleged foreign interference in U.S. elections, aiming to expand federal authority over voting procedures, mail ballots, and machines ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trump has declined to rule out the step, referenced it in interviews as a possible response to stalled legislation like the SAVE America Act, and delivered speeches highlighting declassified intelligence on election vulnerabilities. Courts have blocked or limited prior related executive orders on voter eligibility and mail voting, while an existing 2018 emergency order on foreign interference was continued in 2025 without triggering new election-specific powers. These factors, combined with midterm timing and ongoing litigation, shape the roughly 25% trader-implied probability of a qualifying declaration by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
音量
$193,032終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump allies have circulated draft executive orders and publicly urged a new national emergency declaration under the National Emergencies Act to address alleged foreign interference in U.S. elections, aiming to expand federal authority over voting procedures, mail ballots, and machines ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trump has declined to rule out the step, referenced it in interviews as a possible response to stalled legislation like the SAVE America Act, and delivered speeches highlighting declassified intelligence on election vulnerabilities. Courts have blocked or limited prior related executive orders on voter eligibility and mail voting, while an existing 2018 emergency order on foreign interference was continued in 2025 without triggering new election-specific powers. These factors, combined with midterm timing and ongoing litigation, shape the roughly 25% trader-implied probability of a qualifying declaration by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$193,032終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trump allies have circulated draft executive orders and publicly urged a new national emergency declaration under the National Emergencies Act to address alleged foreign interference in U.S. elections, aiming to expand federal authority over voting procedures, mail ballots, and machines ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trump has declined to rule out the step, referenced it in interviews as a possible response to stalled legislation like the SAVE America Act, and delivered speeches highlighting declassified intelligence on election vulnerabilities. Courts have blocked or limited prior related executive orders on voter eligibility and mail voting, while an existing 2018 emergency order on foreign interference was continued in 2025 without triggering new election-specific powers. These factors, combined with midterm timing and ongoing litigation, shape the roughly 25% trader-implied probability of a qualifying declaration by December 31, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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