Tesla shares' volatility, driven by a disappointing Q1 2026 delivery report on April 2 that triggered the steepest stock drop of the year, has fueled trader caution, positioning the 670b+ outcome at 31% implied probability while spreading bets across the 600-670b range. Musk's fortune, predominantly tied to his Tesla stake alongside SpaceX and xAI holdings, faces pivotal pressure from the April 22 earnings call, where robotaxi updates and margins could swing shares 10-20% as historical patterns suggest. SpaceX's April 1 confidential IPO filing targeting over $1.75 trillion valuation offers upside but won't impact April 30 snapshots, per conservative Bloomberg methodologies underpinning market resolution. Consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on near-term Tesla downside amid 2026's sharp YTD declines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6700억 달러 이상 31%
6,300~6,400억 13%
6,400~6,500억 13%
6600억~6700억 13%
$56,668 거래량
$56,668 거래량
6,000억 미만
6%
6,000억~6,100억
8%
6,100억~6,200억
7%
6200억~6300억
11%
6,300~6,400억
13%
6,400~6,500억
13%
6,500억~6,600억
12%
6600억~6700억
13%
6700억 달러 이상
31%
6700억 달러 이상 31%
6,300~6,400억 13%
6,400~6,500억 13%
6600억~6700억 13%
$56,668 거래량
$56,668 거래량
6,000억 미만
6%
6,000억~6,100억
8%
6,100억~6,200억
7%
6200억~6300억
11%
6,300~6,400억
13%
6,400~6,500억
13%
6,500억~6,600억
12%
6600억~6700억
13%
6700억 달러 이상
31%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla shares' volatility, driven by a disappointing Q1 2026 delivery report on April 2 that triggered the steepest stock drop of the year, has fueled trader caution, positioning the 670b+ outcome at 31% implied probability while spreading bets across the 600-670b range. Musk's fortune, predominantly tied to his Tesla stake alongside SpaceX and xAI holdings, faces pivotal pressure from the April 22 earnings call, where robotaxi updates and margins could swing shares 10-20% as historical patterns suggest. SpaceX's April 1 confidential IPO filing targeting over $1.75 trillion valuation offers upside but won't impact April 30 snapshots, per conservative Bloomberg methodologies underpinning market resolution. Consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on near-term Tesla downside amid 2026's sharp YTD declines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문