Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 minutes' depiction of stable labor markets with low job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, alongside somewhat elevated inflation evidenced by March CPI's 0.2% monthly rise in both headline and core measures. This trader consensus aligns with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, unchanged since prior hikes, and recent shifts like Wells Fargo's revised forecast for zero cuts in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data due May 12 or sharper labor deterioration in upcoming nonfarm payrolls, potentially prompting a 25 basis point adjustment, though current dynamics favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변동 없음 99.0%
25bp 인하 <1%
25bp 이상 인상 <1%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$94,694,922 거래량
$94,694,922 거래량
2026.04.29
50bp 이상 인하
<1%
25bp 인하
<1%
변동 없음
99%
25bp 이상 인상
<1%
변동 없음 99.0%
25bp 인하 <1%
25bp 이상 인상 <1%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$94,694,922 거래량
$94,694,922 거래량
2026.04.29
50bp 이상 인하
$34,691,964 거래량
<1%
25bp 인하
$19,401,418 거래량
<1%
변동 없음
$19,182,807 거래량
99%
25bp 이상 인상
$21,419,128 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 minutes' depiction of stable labor markets with low job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, alongside somewhat elevated inflation evidenced by March CPI's 0.2% monthly rise in both headline and core measures. This trader consensus aligns with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, unchanged since prior hikes, and recent shifts like Wells Fargo's revised forecast for zero cuts in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data due May 12 or sharper labor deterioration in upcoming nonfarm payrolls, potentially prompting a 25 basis point adjustment, though current dynamics favor continuity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
거래량
$94,694,922종료일
2026.04.29마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 minutes' depiction of stable labor markets with low job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, alongside somewhat elevated inflation evidenced by March CPI's 0.2% monthly rise in both headline and core measures. This trader consensus aligns with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, unchanged since prior hikes, and recent shifts like Wells Fargo's revised forecast for zero cuts in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data due May 12 or sharper labor deterioration in upcoming nonfarm payrolls, potentially prompting a 25 basis point adjustment, though current dynamics favor continuity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$94,694,922종료일
2026.04.29마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 minutes' depiction of stable labor markets with low job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, alongside somewhat elevated inflation evidenced by March CPI's 0.2% monthly rise in both headline and core measures. This trader consensus aligns with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, unchanged since prior hikes, and recent shifts like Wells Fargo's revised forecast for zero cuts in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data due May 12 or sharper labor deterioration in upcoming nonfarm payrolls, potentially prompting a 25 basis point adjustment, though current dynamics favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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