Polymarket traders, risking real capital, price a dominant 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range, affirmed in March alongside a dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut, reinforces this consensus amid sticky inflation and solid labor market dynamics. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls (early June), potentially reviving modest cut odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 92%
25bp 인하 6%
25bp 인상 2.5%
50bp 이상 인하 1.0%
$8,157,699 거래량
$8,157,699 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
1%
25bp 인하
6%
변경 없음
92%
25bp 인상
2%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
변경 없음 92%
25bp 인하 6%
25bp 인상 2.5%
50bp 이상 인하 1.0%
$8,157,699 거래량
$8,157,699 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
$2,383,368 거래량
1%
25bp 인하
$1,235,191 거래량
6%
변경 없음
$1,531,553 거래량
92%
25bp 인상
$1,664,470 거래량
2%
50bp 이상 인상
$1,343,178 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, risking real capital, price a dominant 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range, affirmed in March alongside a dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut, reinforces this consensus amid sticky inflation and solid labor market dynamics. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls (early June), potentially reviving modest cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
거래량
$8,157,699종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, risking real capital, price a dominant 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range, affirmed in March alongside a dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut, reinforces this consensus amid sticky inflation and solid labor market dynamics. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls (early June), potentially reviving modest cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$8,157,699종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, risking real capital, price a dominant 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range, affirmed in March alongside a dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut, reinforces this consensus amid sticky inflation and solid labor market dynamics. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls (early June), potentially reviving modest cut odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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