Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with an implied 90.5% probability reflecting real-money bets amid sticky inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 0.9% monthly spike tied to oil price shocks from the US-Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted raised 2026 inflation outlooks and potential for hikes, reinforcing the steady 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning could shift if oil prices plunge or April 28-29 FOMC data signals cooling pressures.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 91%
25bp 인하 5%
25bp 인상 2.4%
50bp 이상 인하 2.1%
$7,856,022 거래량
$7,856,022 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
2%
25bp 인하
5%
변경 없음
91%
25bp 인상
2%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
변경 없음 91%
25bp 인하 5%
25bp 인상 2.4%
50bp 이상 인하 2.1%
$7,856,022 거래량
$7,856,022 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
$2,308,137 거래량
2%
25bp 인하
$1,189,521 거래량
5%
변경 없음
$1,469,456 거래량
91%
25bp 인상
$1,587,523 거래량
2%
50bp 이상 인상
$1,302,885 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with an implied 90.5% probability reflecting real-money bets amid sticky inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 0.9% monthly spike tied to oil price shocks from the US-Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted raised 2026 inflation outlooks and potential for hikes, reinforcing the steady 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning could shift if oil prices plunge or April 28-29 FOMC data signals cooling pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
거래량
$7,856,022종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with an implied 90.5% probability reflecting real-money bets amid sticky inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 0.9% monthly spike tied to oil price shocks from the US-Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted raised 2026 inflation outlooks and potential for hikes, reinforcing the steady 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning could shift if oil prices plunge or April 28-29 FOMC data signals cooling pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$7,856,022종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with an implied 90.5% probability reflecting real-money bets amid sticky inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 0.9% monthly spike tied to oil price shocks from the US-Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted raised 2026 inflation outlooks and potential for hikes, reinforcing the steady 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning could shift if oil prices plunge or April 28-29 FOMC data signals cooling pressures.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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