With over 91% of ballots counted as of April 15 per ONPE official tallies, Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at 17.0%, holding a 4.97-point margin over Roberto Sánchez Palomino of Juntos por el Perú at 12.1%, fueling trader consensus at 82% implied probability for her margin exceeding 5% amid a fragmented field where no candidate surpasses 17%. Logistical failures delayed polling station setup on April 12-13, extending voting and count into a third day, while unsubstantiated fraud allegations from rivals like Rafael López Aliaga prompted protests but drew no backing from EU observers. A June 7 runoff is confirmed, with final certification pending remaining rural votes that could nudge the razor-thin gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트케이코 후지모리 5%+ 82.1%
케이코 후지모리 <5% 14.9%
기타 2.9%
라파엘 로페스 알리아가 15%+ <1%
$302,581 거래량
$302,581 거래량
2026.04.12
라파엘 로페스 알리아가 15%+
<1%
라파엘 로페스 알리가 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
라파엘 로페스 알리가 <5%
<1%
알폰소 로페스 차우 5%+
<1%
알폰소 로페스 차우 <5%
<1%
케이코 후지모리 5%+
82%
케이코 후지모리 <5%
15%
호르헤 니에토
<1%
로베르토 산체스 팔로미노
<1%
볼프강 그로조
<1%
카를로스 알바레스
<1%
기타
3%
케이코 후지모리 5%+ 82.1%
케이코 후지모리 <5% 14.9%
기타 2.9%
라파엘 로페스 알리아가 15%+ <1%
$302,581 거래량
$302,581 거래량
2026.04.12
라파엘 로페스 알리아가 15%+
$8,336 거래량
<1%
라파엘 로페스 알리가 10-15%
$10,022 거래량
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$6,707 거래량
<1%
라파엘 로페스 알리가 <5%
$11,227 거래량
<1%
알폰소 로페스 차우 5%+
$6,911 거래량
<1%
알폰소 로페스 차우 <5%
$6,047 거래량
<1%
케이코 후지모리 5%+
$85,749 거래량
82%
케이코 후지모리 <5%
$114,580 거래량
15%
호르헤 니에토
$6,335 거래량
<1%
로베르토 산체스 팔로미노
$10,618 거래량
<1%
볼프강 그로조
$4,420 거래량
<1%
카를로스 알바레스
$5,810 거래량
<1%
기타
$25,818 거래량
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of ballots counted as of April 15 per ONPE official tallies, Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at 17.0%, holding a 4.97-point margin over Roberto Sánchez Palomino of Juntos por el Perú at 12.1%, fueling trader consensus at 82% implied probability for her margin exceeding 5% amid a fragmented field where no candidate surpasses 17%. Logistical failures delayed polling station setup on April 12-13, extending voting and count into a third day, while unsubstantiated fraud allegations from rivals like Rafael López Aliaga prompted protests but drew no backing from EU observers. A June 7 runoff is confirmed, with final certification pending remaining rural votes that could nudge the razor-thin gap.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
거래량
$302,581종료일
2026.04.12마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of ballots counted as of April 15 per ONPE official tallies, Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at 17.0%, holding a 4.97-point margin over Roberto Sánchez Palomino of Juntos por el Perú at 12.1%, fueling trader consensus at 82% implied probability for her margin exceeding 5% amid a fragmented field where no candidate surpasses 17%. Logistical failures delayed polling station setup on April 12-13, extending voting and count into a third day, while unsubstantiated fraud allegations from rivals like Rafael López Aliaga prompted protests but drew no backing from EU observers. A June 7 runoff is confirmed, with final certification pending remaining rural votes that could nudge the razor-thin gap.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
거래량
$302,581종료일
2026.04.12마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 91% of ballots counted as of April 15 per ONPE official tallies, Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at 17.0%, holding a 4.97-point margin over Roberto Sánchez Palomino of Juntos por el Perú at 12.1%, fueling trader consensus at 82% implied probability for her margin exceeding 5% amid a fragmented field where no candidate surpasses 17%. Logistical failures delayed polling station setup on April 12-13, extending voting and count into a third day, while unsubstantiated fraud allegations from rivals like Rafael López Aliaga prompted protests but drew no backing from EU observers. A June 7 runoff is confirmed, with final certification pending remaining rural votes that could nudge the razor-thin gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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