Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트70-75% 81.2%
75-80% 16%
80~85% 2.3%
> 85% 1.2%
$130,102 거래량
$130,102 거래량
2026.04.12
70% 미만
1%
70-75%
81%
75-80%
16%
80~85%
2%
> 85%
1%
70-75% 81.2%
75-80% 16%
80~85% 2.3%
> 85% 1.2%
$130,102 거래량
$130,102 거래량
2026.04.12
70% 미만
$19,098 거래량
1%
70-75%
$35,703 거래량
81%
75-80%
$20,267 거래량
16%
80~85%
$47,043 거래량
2%
> 85%
$8,030 거래량
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
거래량
$130,102종료일
2026.04.12마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
거래량
$130,102종료일
2026.04.12마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문