Trader consensus implies a 55% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by mid-March confirmations of high-level bilateral talks between Havana and the Trump administration, where Cuba offered an economic roadmap for investment and cooperation amid oil blockades exacerbating blackouts and shortages. A top US general explicitly denied invasion preparations on March 19, emphasizing non-military responses despite Cuban officials' warnings of readiness for aggression and President Díaz-Canel's April 7 vow of guerrilla resistance if attacked. With US forces stretched by Iran operations and no direct incidents, traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation and sanctions against persistent rhetoric, viewing outright confrontation as unlikely absent major triggers like territorial disputes or proxy escalations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$85,454 거래량
$85,454 거래량
2026.12.31
$85,454 거래량
$85,454 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 55% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by mid-March confirmations of high-level bilateral talks between Havana and the Trump administration, where Cuba offered an economic roadmap for investment and cooperation amid oil blockades exacerbating blackouts and shortages. A top US general explicitly denied invasion preparations on March 19, emphasizing non-military responses despite Cuban officials' warnings of readiness for aggression and President Díaz-Canel's April 7 vow of guerrilla resistance if attacked. With US forces stretched by Iran operations and no direct incidents, traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation and sanctions against persistent rhetoric, viewing outright confrontation as unlikely absent major triggers like territorial disputes or proxy escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
거래량
$85,454종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 55% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by mid-March confirmations of high-level bilateral talks between Havana and the Trump administration, where Cuba offered an economic roadmap for investment and cooperation amid oil blockades exacerbating blackouts and shortages. A top US general explicitly denied invasion preparations on March 19, emphasizing non-military responses despite Cuban officials' warnings of readiness for aggression and President Díaz-Canel's April 7 vow of guerrilla resistance if attacked. With US forces stretched by Iran operations and no direct incidents, traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation and sanctions against persistent rhetoric, viewing outright confrontation as unlikely absent major triggers like territorial disputes or proxy escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$85,454종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 55% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by mid-March confirmations of high-level bilateral talks between Havana and the Trump administration, where Cuba offered an economic roadmap for investment and cooperation amid oil blockades exacerbating blackouts and shortages. A top US general explicitly denied invasion preparations on March 19, emphasizing non-military responses despite Cuban officials' warnings of readiness for aggression and President Díaz-Canel's April 7 vow of guerrilla resistance if attacked. With US forces stretched by Iran operations and no direct incidents, traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation and sanctions against persistent rhetoric, viewing outright confrontation as unlikely absent major triggers like territorial disputes or proxy escalations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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