U.S. intelligence's March 18, 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, echoed across ODNI and WSJ reporting, drives trader consensus at 91.3% against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, assessing no current Beijing plans for 2027 action and a preference for non-military unification amid prohibitive economic costs and PLA readiness gaps. Routine People's Liberation Army exercises in the Taiwan Strait persist, countered by Taiwan's April Han Kuang drills incorporating U.S.-style tactics for deterrence. Xi Jinping's New Year rhetoric on "unstoppable" reunification remains verbal, without escalation signals. Traders weigh sustained de-escalation against risks like sudden diplomatic breakdowns or domestic pressures that could shift odds before December 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,597,654 거래량
$19,597,654 거래량
예
$19,597,654 거래량
$19,597,654 거래량
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
U.S. intelligence's March 18, 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, echoed across ODNI and WSJ reporting, drives trader consensus at 91.3% against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, assessing no current Beijing plans for 2027 action and a preference for non-military unification amid prohibitive economic costs and PLA readiness gaps. Routine People's Liberation Army exercises in the Taiwan Strait persist, countered by Taiwan's April Han Kuang drills incorporating U.S.-style tactics for deterrence. Xi Jinping's New Year rhetoric on "unstoppable" reunification remains verbal, without escalation signals. Traders weigh sustained de-escalation against risks like sudden diplomatic breakdowns or domestic pressures that could shift odds before December 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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