Trump administration efforts to eliminate the Department of Education have relied on executive orders, including a March 2025 directive to dismantle the agency and shift programs to states and other departments via interagency agreements announced in November 2025, yet full abolition requires congressional legislation to repeal its 1979 establishing statute—a step Congress has not taken. Recent bipartisan spending proposals in January 2026 preserved key funding for student aid and school programs, rejecting deeper cuts amid ongoing restructuring like office relocations and sub-office closures in early 2026. With trader consensus implying just 3.5% odds of success before 2027, the lack of a viable legislative path and slim window remaining drives high confidence in "No," though a reconciliation bill or lame-duck session push could theoretically alter outcomes.