Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability to Donald Trump not resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of verified health concerns, legal pressures, institutional signals, or public statements from the president or administration indicating any intent to leave office early in his term. Recent months have featured routine policy activity, including executive actions on healthcare costs and drug pricing, alongside midterm election positioning, with no credible developments altering the baseline that sitting presidents complete their terms absent extraordinary crises. Speculation from critics has surfaced periodically but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, unforeseen scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or an unanticipated personal decision, though each remains low-probability within the short resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$527,174 Vol.
$527,174 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$527,174 Vol.
$527,174 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability to Donald Trump not resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of verified health concerns, legal pressures, institutional signals, or public statements from the president or administration indicating any intent to leave office early in his term. Recent months have featured routine policy activity, including executive actions on healthcare costs and drug pricing, alongside midterm election positioning, with no credible developments altering the baseline that sitting presidents complete their terms absent extraordinary crises. Speculation from critics has surfaced periodically but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, unforeseen scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or an unanticipated personal decision, though each remains low-probability within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$527,174End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability to Donald Trump not resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of verified health concerns, legal pressures, institutional signals, or public statements from the president or administration indicating any intent to leave office early in his term. Recent months have featured routine policy activity, including executive actions on healthcare costs and drug pricing, alongside midterm election positioning, with no credible developments altering the baseline that sitting presidents complete their terms absent extraordinary crises. Speculation from critics has surfaced periodically but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, unforeseen scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or an unanticipated personal decision, though each remains low-probability within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$527,174End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability to Donald Trump not resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of verified health concerns, legal pressures, institutional signals, or public statements from the president or administration indicating any intent to leave office early in his term. Recent months have featured routine policy activity, including executive actions on healthcare costs and drug pricing, alongside midterm election positioning, with no credible developments altering the baseline that sitting presidents complete their terms absent extraordinary crises. Speculation from critics has surfaced periodically but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, unforeseen scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or an unanticipated personal decision, though each remains low-probability within the short resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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