Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th congressional district on November 3. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent partisan lean in recent presidential voting and its southwestern Arizona geography spanning border and urban areas. Both candidates cleared their July primaries with minimal opposition, leaving little room for primary-driven shifts. The 95.5% implied probability for Democrats on Polymarket reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive activity. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates and current campaign dynamics make such outcomes improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,780 Wol.
$32,780 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$32,780 Wol.
$32,780 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,800 Wol.
96%
Republican Party
$26,980 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th congressional district on November 3. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent partisan lean in recent presidential voting and its southwestern Arizona geography spanning border and urban areas. Both candidates cleared their July primaries with minimal opposition, leaving little room for primary-driven shifts. The 95.5% implied probability for Democrats on Polymarket reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive activity. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates and current campaign dynamics make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$32,780Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th congressional district on November 3. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent partisan lean in recent presidential voting and its southwestern Arizona geography spanning border and urban areas. Both candidates cleared their July primaries with minimal opposition, leaving little room for primary-driven shifts. The 95.5% implied probability for Democrats on Polymarket reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive activity. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates and current campaign dynamics make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$32,780Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th congressional district on November 3. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent partisan lean in recent presidential voting and its southwestern Arizona geography spanning border and urban areas. Both candidates cleared their July primaries with minimal opposition, leaving little room for primary-driven shifts. The 95.5% implied probability for Democrats on Polymarket reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive activity. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates and current campaign dynamics make such outcomes improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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