U.S. President Donald Trump's March and May 2026 social media posts floated Venezuela as a potential 51st state after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January, citing the country's oil reserves and recent diplomatic pressure. Venezuela's acting president immediately rejected the notion, stressing national independence, while U.S. officials have focused on resuming diplomatic ties, oil sector engagement, and supporting a political transition rather than annexation. Adding a new state requires congressional legislation and the consent of the territory involved, neither of which has advanced. Traders assign a 97.7% probability to "No" because Venezuela remains a sovereign nation outside the constitutional statehood process. Remote scenarios that could shift odds include a formal enabling act from Congress combined with Venezuelan government consent, though no such steps are underway.