Traders assign Venezuela a 97.4% chance of remaining outside the United States because the country is a sovereign South American nation with no territorial or constitutional path to statehood. Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez explicitly rejected any such idea in May 2026, citing national independence and historical sovereignty following U.S. President Trump’s brief public remarks on the topic. U.S. admission of new states requires congressional legislation, mutual consent, and ratification processes that have no precedent for foreign countries. Recent developments have centered on diplomatic friction and oil-related tensions rather than annexation talks, reinforcing the market’s view that legal, geopolitical, and domestic political barriers remain prohibitive. Late shifts would require coordinated bilateral negotiations, major regime change in Caracas, and sustained congressional support—scenarios viewed as remote by traders pricing skin-in-the-game consensus.